tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-988599552908585128.post751200444828174473..comments2023-10-16T01:09:58.286-07:00Comments on BC Iconoclast: Election Outcome Scenarios for the UK ElectionBernardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15951619465188564252noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-988599552908585128.post-43646363381413348762010-04-28T15:58:02.051-07:002010-04-28T15:58:02.051-07:00I live in Lewisham Deptford, and I'm going GRE...I live in Lewisham Deptford, and I'm going GREEN this time....Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16718015740534037260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-988599552908585128.post-88204444633123636032010-04-27T19:02:14.673-07:002010-04-27T19:02:14.673-07:00Interesting, thanks,Interesting, thanks,Anthonyhttp://theoryspark.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-988599552908585128.post-65371957834761725352010-04-27T17:54:49.143-07:002010-04-27T17:54:49.143-07:00I will try to, I have a spreadsheet on my comp.
1...I will try to, I have a spreadsheet on my comp.<br /><br />1) Most voter turnout increase was applied to seats with less than and 50% voter turnout in 2005. Most of this increase was assigned to LD <br /><br />2) Labour vote was reduced primarily through the following split - 30% to LD, 15% to Cons and 55% to non voting. High voter turn out seats in 2005 were only assigned a small increase in turnout.<br /><br />1) and 2) the attempt was to emulate the sort of results we saw in Canada for Conservatives in 1993 and Liberals in 1984. Some emulation was done of UK Conservative results in 1997<br /><br />3) 2005 Labour marginals in which Cons were close were all assigned to Cons.<br /><br />4) What regional breakdowns I could find were applied.<br /><br />5) Incumbency was assigned as a bonus to all 1 term LD and Cons but only to well know Labour MPs<br /><br />If I get some more time, I will explain in more detail in a postingBernardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15951619465188564252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-988599552908585128.post-88833627615316257302010-04-27T16:03:44.808-07:002010-04-27T16:03:44.808-07:00Hi Bernard,
Can you say anything more about the s...Hi Bernard,<br /><br />Can you say anything more about the specific mechanics you used to generate these scenario outcomes?Anthonyhttp://theoryspark.com/noreply@blogger.com