Monday, September 22, 2008

BC Ridings

Of the ridings in BC, I believe that only 10 are at all in question at the moment.

The Conservatives are safe in 20 ridings
The NDP are safe in 6 ridings
The Liberals are now safe in none.

This leaves 10 ridings still in question

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca
This is a race between the NDP and Conservatives. Keith Martin's personal popularity allowed him to squeak back in twice as a Liberal but the tide is so strongly against him that he is being swept out to sea.

At this time I favour the Conservatives.

Vancouver Centre
This is a four way race I would not put money on who will win. If I had to choose, at the moment the Liberals.

Vancouver South
As the Liberal fortunes fail in BC, the riding comes closer and closer to the Conservatives. I still think Liberals will win at the moment.

Burnaby New West
An NDP - Conservative battle that might flip the riding back to the Conservatives. NDP most likely to win.

Vancouver Quadra
The very close by-election means this riding is in play for the Conservatives. Conservatives most likely to win.

Vancouver Island North
Bell v Duncan for the third time. NDP - Conservative battle with everyone else an afterthought. NDP most likely to win.

North Vancouver
A Liberal Conservative battle with the edge to the Conservatives at the moment. Conservatives most likely to win.

New Westminister Coquitlam
Another close NDP Conservative fight. Conservatives most likely to win.

Vancouver Kingsway
A Liberal NDP fight with the NDP gaining the upper hand.

Surrey North
Another NDP - Conservative battle with the Conservatives winning.

BC Results
  • Conservatives - 25
  • NDP - 9
  • Liberals - 2

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Overall, polling trends in BC show the CPC above its 2006 result by ~3%, the NDP down by ~5% and the Liberals down by about ~7%.

The NDP vote is spread more evenly across BC, while the Liberal vote is more concentrated in the City of Vancouver and the neighbouring north shore, Richmond and Burnaby and to a lesser extent in Victoria.

The Liberals should be able to hold on to their 4 City of Vancouver ridings and perhaps one of (North Vancouver, Esquimalt, and Newton-North Delta).

I just can't see the NDP holding on to VI North... CPC up in BC and NDP down from 2006 and the development and changing demographics - Alberta retirees.

Surrey North is a strange one. It's working class and should be NDP but it has elected Reform, CA candidates. With the CPC running with the Cadman name and the NDP running a no namer, it's gonna be close.

Prediction right now:

Liberal - 4 - 5 seats;
NDP - 7 - 8 seats;
CPC - the rest;