Projection for Sept 16th 2008

Using the latest polling numbers the election would come out as follows:

• Conservatives - 164
• Liberals - 69
• NDP - 30
• Bloc - 38
• Green - 1
• Ind - 2

I can see a trend of falling Liberal and Bloc support and project that it will continue during the election. Based on this I see the final election result as:

• Conservatives - 203
• NDP - 39
• Bloc - 34
• Liberals - 28
• Greens - 2
• Ind - 2

The Liberal vote has to be seen as a tide and as it falls there are a lot of boats being very quickly beached. The Liberals do not have the advantage of having a concentrated vote like the Bloc or NDP do. If their numbers fall to under 20%, and they are close to this than 30% now, the party will lose a lot of seats and in areas most people think are impossible to lose.

No one thought the PCs could lose almost all their seats in 1993. Few people are willing to suggest that hardcore long time Liberal seats will fall, but the possibility is emerging.

The only strategy left for the Liberals to identify their core fortress of seats, the 50 safest, and put all their resources into them now to ensure the party does not come fourth in the election.