These are national numbers only. I used everyone that has been out in the field in the last week and used all the analysis I could of extra details such as this.
This is where it leaves it all:
Conservatives 39.3%
Liberals 23.8%
NDP 18.7%
Greens 12.1%
Bloc 7.6%
The number I was most surprised at was the Green totals. My goal was to factor in the danger of soft voters leaving a party and I know the Greens support is a not as committed as for other parties. But once I crunched the other numbers, there are enough people that are soft supporters of the NDP, Liberals and Conservatives that would chose Greens second to make up for their soft support.
This analysis shows that the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals is 15.5 percentage points. This gap has to be scary for the Liberals and, short a Conservative meltdown, means the Liberals can only hope they remain ahead of the NDP.
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