Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Seat projections

I do not think I am going to make another projection on the seats at this time because I can not find a consistent set of polling numbers that jive over the regions.

Clearly there was some strong shifts against Harper after the leaders debate, but I am still left with the following questions:

Which people are going to vote? We know that only about 60-65% of Canadians are going to vote. The polling companies are not weeding the non voters. They do weed out the undecided, but there it is not clear if they are voters or non voters.

Will Harper being outside of majority territory push him back up?

Will the NDP continue to gain on the Liberals?

Where will all those Green voters go?

I am also looking at the work by Werner Antweiler at UBC and it is making me rethink my whole paradigm with seat projections.

So, I could make a random gut based guess at the moment, but instead I am going to re examine my model and see if there where the trend in the polls is going.

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