Friday, February 13, 2009

What 2005 election would have looked like with the new boundaries

The UBC ESM is working hard to get the data in place to allow us to use their election forecasting tool with the new ridings in BC.

Looking at the results from 2005 transposed to 2009 shows something interesting, the NDP is up four seats and Liberals are only up two. I am not 100% sure about this data yet, there may be some errors, but I do not think there is anything major.

The next version of their voter transition matrix will include the ability to look at non voters in the mix.

So what places had theoretical NDP wins in 2005 with the new boundaries?
  • Kamloops North Thompson
  • Burnaby North
  • Maple Ridge Mission

The Liberals do pick up as well
  • Saanich South
I know there should be more "pick ups" for each party, but these are the ones I found for ridings that are largely the same as last time but "changed sides" with redistribution.

An interesting riding is Nanaimo. In 2005 the NDP won 51.9% to 34.0%. With the new boundaries this changes to 45.4% NDP and 42.5% Liberal

What would the NDP have won in 2005 with the new boundaries?

  1. Alberni-Pacific Rim

  2. Burnaby-Edmonds

  3. Burnaby North

  4. Cariboo-Chilcotin

  5. Cariboo North

  6. Columbia River-Revelstoke

  7. Coquitlam-Maillardville

  8. Cowichan Valley

  9. Delta North

  10. Equimalt-Royal Roads

  11. Fraser-Nicola

  12. Juan de Fuca

  13. Kamloops-North Thompson

  14. Kootenay West

  15. Maple Ridge-Mission

  16. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

  17. Nanaimo

  18. Nanaimo-North Cowichan

  19. Nelson-Creston

  20. New Westminster

  21. North Coast

  22. North Island

  23. Port Coquitlam

  24. Powell River-Sunshine Coast

  25. Skeena

  26. Surrey-Fleetwood

  27. Surrey-Green Timbers

  28. Surrey-Newton

  29. Surrey-Whalley

  30. Vancouver-Fairview

  31. Vancouver-Hastings

  32. Vancouver-Kensington

  33. Vancouver-Kingsway

  34. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

  35. Vancouver-West End

  36. Victoria-Beacon Hill

  37. Victoria-Swan Lake


Sacha said...

Bernard; please note that the poll key transitions from the 2005 to 2009 boundaries are not 100% conversions - for example, there are polls on the 2005 boundary maps that straddle the boundaries in 2009. A lot of these are in rural areas, so the net change would be insignificant, but there are some ones in urban areas as well.

Your Maple Ridge-Mission calculation might be off; I had them as "barely BC Liberal" myself.

Bernard said...

I realize that it is not 100% accurate, but I am hoping that it is close enough to start from for looking at 2009.

Maple Ridge Mission is very close, I thought it came out NDP, but I could be wrong on that.