What 2005 election would have looked like with the new boundaries

The UBC ESM is working hard to get the data in place to allow us to use their election forecasting tool with the new ridings in BC.

Looking at the results from 2005 transposed to 2009 shows something interesting, the NDP is up four seats and Liberals are only up two. I am not 100% sure about this data yet, there may be some errors, but I do not think there is anything major.

The next version of their voter transition matrix will include the ability to look at non voters in the mix.

So what places had theoretical NDP wins in 2005 with the new boundaries?

• Kamloops North Thompson
• Burnaby North
• Maple Ridge Mission

The Liberals do pick up as well

• Saanich South

I know there should be more "pick ups" for each party, but these are the ones I found for ridings that are largely the same as last time but "changed sides" with redistribution.

An interesting riding is Nanaimo. In 2005 the NDP won 51.9% to 34.0%. With the new boundaries this changes to 45.4% NDP and 42.5% Liberal

What would the NDP have won in 2005 with the new boundaries?

1. Alberni-Pacific Rim

2. Burnaby-Edmonds

3. Burnaby North

4. Cariboo-Chilcotin

5. Cariboo North

6. Columbia River-Revelstoke

7. Coquitlam-Maillardville

8. Cowichan Valley

9. Delta North

10. Equimalt-Royal Roads

11. Fraser-Nicola

12. Juan de Fuca

13. Kamloops-North Thompson

14. Kootenay West

15. Maple Ridge-Mission

16. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

17. Nanaimo

18. Nanaimo-North Cowichan

19. Nelson-Creston

20. New Westminster

21. North Coast

22. North Island

23. Port Coquitlam

24. Powell River-Sunshine Coast

25. Skeena

26. Surrey-Fleetwood

27. Surrey-Green Timbers

28. Surrey-Newton

29. Surrey-Whalley

30. Vancouver-Fairview

31. Vancouver-Hastings

32. Vancouver-Kensington

33. Vancouver-Kingsway

34. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

35. Vancouver-West End

36. Victoria-Beacon Hill

37. Victoria-Swan Lake