Thursday, March 19, 2009

From Main to Mission - who will win?

Vancouver Fraserview
Wally Oppal is not running for re-election here for the Liberals. The riding is not dramatically changed from the past. The riding has elected a government member in each of the last four elections but has not had any MLA serve more than one term. They will get their fifth new MLA on May 12th.

The NDP are running Garbiel Yui, and the Liberals look like they will be running Kash Heed. At this point I see the Liberals winning here.

Vancouver Hastings
Shane Simpson should easily win for the NDP.

Vancouver Kensington
Safer NDP ground than BC Liberal ground, but it is possible for the Liberals to take this one from the NDP. David Chunovsky is retiring after a single term as MLA.

No NDP candidate nominated yet. Chinatown leader Syrus Lee is running for the Liberals.

Vancouver Kingsway

Adrian Dix should not have any trouble holding this seat for the NDP

Vancouver Mount Pleasant
Jenny Kwan should easily win for the NDP. This is a place the Greens should try and finish second.

Burnaby Deer Lake
John Nuraney is running here for re-election against Kathy Corrigan of the NDP. It would be a major upset if he were to lose.

Burnaby Edmonds
NDP MLA Raj Chouhan should be able to get relected here, it would take a catastrophic election for the NDP to lose here.

Burnaby Lougheed
Harry Bloy will be running for re-election in this riding. He was previously the MLA for Buiquitlam which straddled the boundary of Burnaby and Coquitlam. Jaynie Clark is running for the NDP. I do not see Harry losing, there are few better retail politcians than him out there.

Burnaby North
Richard T Lee is trying for a third win here as the Liberal MLA and his fourth race here. For the first time it will not Richard T Lee versus Pietro Calendino. The NDP is being represented by Mondee Redman.

Even though the race was close last time, I do not see the election playing out to allow the NDP to win this one. If the NDP were running a star here I would think there was a chance they could take the seat. A former school board trustee is not a big enough name to make a difference at the ballot box. Mondee did not win re-election to the school board in 2005 even though she was chair of the board.

New Westminster
Dawn Black has left Ottawa to run to be an MLA for the NDP. I expect her to win, other than 2001, the last time the NDP/CCF did not win here was in 1949.

Coquitlam Maillardville
A close race in 2005 with New Democrat Diane Thorne narrowly defeating Liberal MLA Richard Stewart. Richard has gone one become mayor of Coquitlam.

At this point I give Liberal Dennis Marsden the edge over Diane Thorne.

Port Moody Coquitlam
This is where sitting Liberal MLA Iain Black will be running for re-election. He faces Shannon Watkins of the NDP, but I do not see him having any trouble in getting re-elected.

Port Coquitlam
Mike Farnworth is running here for his fourth term in the house. Many people seem to think that he is unassaible in this riding due to personal popularity. He was defeated badly in 2001.

There is no Liberal candidate nominated here yet. Depending on who they nominate, they could win here. At the moment this is a toss up riding for me with an edge to Mike Farnworth.

Maple Ridge Meadows
Michael Sather is running here again for the NDP and once again is facing Ken Stewart. Ken ran here in 1996, 2001 and 2005.

The redistribution has made this riding less NDP friendly, at this point I would give this one to the Liberals. The wildcards for me are how Michael Sather's opposition to the Tsawwassen Treaty and the Upper Pitt green power projects impact the local voters.

Maple Ridge Mission

The redistribution makes this riding notionally an NDP one. The Liberals have nominated Marc Dalton and the NDP have not yet nominated anyone.

I do not see the NDP doing as well this time around as last time, so I expect the Liberals to win here.

In these 15 ridings, the parties go in with the NDP 'holding' 9 and the Liberals 6. I see the NDP coming out with 6-7 seats and the Liberals with 8-9 seats


Anonymous said...

Eveything west of and including Thorne's riding will go NDP. All the Burnaby ridings will go NDP due to the jail beside a school issue.

Also, Oppal moved because he couldn't win not to open a seat for a star.

Anonymous said...

Couldn't agree more with your analysis Bernard.

Another key point to remember is that the Libs had a 4% spread over the NDP in 2005. Mustel currently shows that spread at 16%. We'll see what Ipsos shows us early next week.

That overall provincial spread has an impact upon every BC seat, one way or another, and certainly magnifies the seat count as you have once suggested.

Anonymous said...

If I recall correctly, Farnworth actually had the 10th highest percentage of NDP vote in the province in the 2001 election. Not winning, obviously, but Bernard's comment leaves the wrong impression of previous election results when he says "defeated badly". Relative to ???

Bernard said...

Yes, he had the 10th highest result for the NDP, but he was still very badly beaten. On election day in 2001 he placed well back of the Liberal.

The NDP did really bad in 2001.

In 1996 this was the ninth highest NDP vote, so he in fact did marginally worse than expected in 2001.

Mike Farnworth lost a lot of ground last time around, coming 21st for the NDP.

Anonymous said...

Re: Farnworth

Sure, but one could argue that he was not nearly as high-profile in the 96/01/05 elections as he has been in the last couple years leading up to the 09 election. I guess the proof will be in the numbers of E-Day, but the Liberals inability to field a strong challenger (or any challenger as of my writing this) seems to indicate that they've given up here.

Anonymous said...

Great post Bernard. I may role with your idea and do an island breakdown. With the polls the way they are (and the new ones coming out soon) I expect to see more then the usual 3-4 seats going to the Liberals.

Anonymous said...

Quimby, Farnworth won by a 5% margin in '05 in the transposed riding. Since '05, and over the past 4 years, considerable residential development (owner-occupiers) has occurred in the riding.

The Libs won by a 4% margin province-wide in '05, impacting riding specific results.

Most people vote for the party, not the candidate. And Farnworth also has his negatives. Crying several times on TV and acting akin to a bonehead, as others have noted, evens things out.

Heck, Wally Oppal likely has higher personal approval ratings.

Right now, yes Farnworth will likely win by a slim margin IF the Libs have increased their overall province wide margin to 10%. But if the 16% margin of Mustel stands on election day, then that's a whole different matter.

Anonymous said...

All I can say is --LOL/Ha Ha

I guess your not privey to the BC Liberal internal polls!
Oppal is a sacrificial lamb,fraserview riding will be NDP all the way,Oppal is cooked in Delta,Richard Lee and all other Burnaby liberal MLAs are finished.I guess you haven`t seen the petition with 1000s of chinese names on it against the Burnaby prison.
As for Vancouver island,the Liberals will be lucky to win even 1 seat.
The last bi-elections in Burrard/fairview--2 rookie(gay) candidates blew away Campbell`s stars,and the Wilf Hanni got 5% of the vote.
Surrey will have many seat changes,change from Liberal to NDP--The port mann scam is a loser for the Liberals and they messed up with the hospital lies!
The indan recognition act(even though delayed) has scared many right-sided Liberals.
Bond in prince george is so-done-and Pat bell is gone.

And last point Schulman--A week befor the last bi-election Campbell had a 15 minute on all news stations/prime-time uninterupted news/press conference and was in the middle of a 100 million dollar non-stop ad campaign running since since/2008--And Campbell`s stars got blown out,so see the jar half empty,some half full--But your seeing water in a jar thats broken!
Expect 10% of liberal supporters to stay home,why? because they can`t stand Campbell!