I would love to see some analysis of why the other companies all differed from ARS so much, that they over estimated the Liberals and under estimated the NDP.
No ARS was not right. At the time of the ARS poll, the spread was a lot larger - about 10%. The spread got squeezed so that between the ARS poll and 5/12 it dropped from 10 to 4%.
Unless ARS is polling the future - then they have been wrong. At the time of the ARS poll, the spread was not 3% or 2%, it was 10%.
Only few people imagined that the spread would get squeezed so drastically. ARS was just lucky that it got squeezed in their direction. Otherwise, they were way off.
No ARS was not right. At the time of the ARS poll, the spread was a lot larger - about 10%. The spread got squeezed so that between the ARS poll and 5/12 it dropped from 10 to 4%.
ReplyDeleteUnless ARS is polling the future - then they have been wrong. At the time of the ARS poll, the spread was not 3% or 2%, it was 10%.
Only few people imagined that the spread would get squeezed so drastically. ARS was just lucky that it got squeezed in their direction. Otherwise, they were way off.