Thursday, February 11, 2010

New Ekos Federal Poll

I have not been saying much on the polls out there as I find that the data has not had much interesting to say. The latest Ekos poll does have something interesting arising, 2.8% of Canadians are opting for 'Other' for who they would vote for. 2.8% of Canadians opted for this choice.

In BC 3.7% opted for other and 4.3% on Alberta. These are numbers high enough to relevant and to me indicates a rising unhappiness with all of the parties. I suspect that the majority of these people are blue collar conservative types, the back bone of Reform. I base that on the fact that more men than women are opting for other and more people with high school or less education are opting for other.

On the left one could see the Greens as being the none of the above for the centre and left. Though in BC their numbers are remaining strong, 15% in the latest survey.

In Ontario the NDP is only marginally ahead of the Greens in the poll.

Ekos also asked about second choices, the Liberals are the strongest second choice for the NDP and Conservatives. Meanwhile the majority of the Conservatives said there was no possible second choice.

Interestingly, Green voters are more likely to choose a party on the centre to centre right than the left as a second choice. CPC got 9.7% of second choices, the Liberals 26.1% and the NDP 25.7%.

Bloc second choices are all over the map.

The older someone is, the more likely they do not have a second choice. The prairies have the highest levels of no second choice which is not surprising as the Conservatives are dominant in the region. 54% of Albertans have no second choice.

I am not changing my seat projection at the moment because I do not see this data as being different enough to allow me to make any significant changes.

On timing of the next election, it is the Conservative supporters that are most opposed to an election before 2012. Undecided people were most likely to choose 2012 for the election. New Democrats were most in favour of an election in the near future but only slightly more than their supporters not wanting an election before 2012.

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