Friday, April 30, 2010

The 65 seats I am 90% certain will be lost by Labour to the Liberal Democrats

Working with the model I am using which assumes the the biggest swing in the election is by 2005 Labour supporters choosing not to vote in 2010 and many of the new voters this time voting Liberal Democrats.  It also assumes that the 2005 Labour supporters that are voting but not Labour are equally splitting between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

There were about 15 seats that in the big picture of the model were won by the Liberal Democrats, but given the 2005 results and how close the Conservatives were, I assigned those seats to the Conservatives.

All the seats are in England, I am not confident of the data from Wales or Scotland to make predictions for those seats.

Here are the 65 seats I am 90% certain will fall to the Cleggista Revolution:
  1. Briminghan Hodge Hill
  2. Brimingham Ladywood – the low turn out is a big factor here
  3. Brimingham Perry Barr
  4. Bishop Auckland
  5. Blackburn
  6. Blaydon 
  7. Blyth Valley
  8. Bradford East 
  9. Brent Central
  10. Bristol East
  11. Bristol North West 
  12. Bristol South
  13. Burnley 
  14. Colne Valley 
  15. Cotswolds
  16. Coventry North West
  17. Derby North 
  18. Derby South
  19. Derbyshire North East
  20. Doncaster Central
  21. Dulwich and West Norwood
  22. City of Durham 
  23. Exeter
  24. Feltham and Heston– the low turn out is a big factor here
  25. Great Grimsby – the low turn out is a big factor here
  26. Hackney North and Stoke Newington – the low turn out is a big factor here
  27. Hartlepool 
  28. Holborn and St Pancras – the low turn out is a big factor here
  29. Huddersfield
  30. Hull North 
  31. Hull West and Hessle 
  32. Ilford South
  33. Ipswich
  34. Islington North
  35. Islington South and Finsbury 
  36. Lancaster and Fleetwood
  37. Leicester South 
  38. Lewisham West and Penge
  39. Leyton and Wanstead
  40. Liverpool Riverside – the low turn out is a big factor here
  41. Liverpoll Wavertree 
  42. Luton South
  43. Manchester Gordon – the low turn out is a big factor here
  44. Newcastle upon Tyne Central
  45. Newcastle upon Tyne East 
  46. Newcastle upon Tyne North 
  47. Northhampton North 
  48. Norwich South 
  49. Nottingham East
  50. Nottingham South
  51. Oldham East and Saddleworth 
  52. Oxford East 
  53. Plymouth Moor View
  54. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
  55. Preston
  56. Sheffield Central 
  57. Southampton Itchen
  58. Southampton Test
  59. St Helens South and Whiston
  60. Streatham
  61. Vauxhall – the low turn out is a big factor here
  62. Wakefield
  63. Walthamstow
  64. Wansbeck
  65. Watford 

Potential Conservative held seats that the Liberal Democrats could win.

  1. Bournemouth West 
  2. Broadland 
  3. Dorset North 
  4. Dorset West
  5. Eastbourne
I am not certain what will happen in any of these five as I can not be certain of what voters will do in seats where Labour is not a factor.   Let us call it 2 LibDem and 3 Conservative.

On the above alone, Nick Clegg would be over 130 seats in Westminster and this is the absolute minimum seats for them.   

I am off camping this weekend and may not get another post in - I have to finish laying a floor before I can go.  If I do, or on Monday, I will detail 76 more Labour seats that are under threat to be lost to the Liberal Democrats.   My estimate is that Labour will lose at least 50 of those seats to one of the other parties.


Anonymous said...

Bunley? Surely you mean Burnley, but no worries. Excellent stuff. Let's hoping you're 100% right.

Anonymous said...

Rallings and Thrasher give Glenda Jackson MP (Hampstead and Kilburn) a revised 2005 majority of 474 over the Lib Dems, yet that seat does not appear in your list. Surely it is within the LDs' grasp.

Bernard said...

The figures I was using showed that the new Hampstead and Kilburn seat would have been won by LibDems in 2005, but looking into it a bit further, I can see there are different numbers out there for it.

I was using the numbers for the changed boundaries from

This is a seat that should be a Liberal Democrat win. Do I add it to this list?

I suspect I should do a complete list of all the seats in England that I believe the Liberal Democrats will win, could win and might win.