Thursday, May 27, 2010

Latest Ekos Poll

The weekly Ekos poll is out and it indicates again that there is a clear gap in support between the Liberals and Conservatives.   This is the most important indication of a change in political opinion in Canada in quite some time.  This poll has the two major parties closer than last week, but it shows that there is clear gap between them.

The change is much more about the Liberal support falling than the Conservatives gaining ground.  At 33.9% for the Conservatives versus 25.7% for the Liberals there is now an eight point gap between the two.   In the last election that gap was 11.4 points.   The Conservatives need to be much higher in the polls to have a hope of winning a majority in the next election.   They need to polling in the range of 38%+ to have any realistic hope of coming out of an election with a majority.  

The Green support in BC is significant at 17.3% and if you factor out Vancouver, the Greens in the rest of BC are at 21.5%, this is high enough to make it possible to consider Greens winning a seat in BC..   The top ridings in my opinion are Nanaimo Alberni, Okanagan Shuswap, and Vancouver Centre.

For the federalist parties there is very little good news in Quebec.  One interesting thing I see is that the Liberals do much better with women than men in Quebec and with the Conservatives it is the reverse.  The trend is one that often happens across Canada, it is just not normally so pronounced as in Quebec this week.  I ignore the results in the breakouts when the sample sizes get very small.

No comments: