Wednesday, March 23, 2011

1st Attempt at a Prediction

I am going to try and make a prediction of the likely outcome of the federal election.   I am not doing an extrapolation of what current polls might mean for seats at the moment.  

Factors I am taking into consideration

  1. A drop in voter turn out in safe NDP, Bloc and Conservative seats
  2. Polling numbers as they are out there - though I you should know I have my own serious reservations about the numbers
  3. The money on hand to fight an election campaign - I give the Conservatives a bonus for having money in the bank
  4. Incumbent and 'star' candidates
  5. The number of ridings the party has to seriously fight - The NDP and Bloc benefit from only having to focus on a few ridings in the country
  6. What the election campaign looks like on the ground
  7. What the election looks like on the air waves
  8. Media reactions to the campaign


The last three I will not be able to assess till sometime early next week.

One tool I use a lot to work out my numbers is the UBC Election Stockmarket election forecasting tool.

Coming out of the 2008 election, there are about 50 to 70 seats in Canada that are realistically in play.  This means 238 to 258 of the seats are safe

Safe Seats

  • Conservatives - 120
  • Liberals -  60
  • Bloc - 44
  • NDP - 26
  • Not Safe - 58

One aspect of this is that before the election even starts we can be certain that the largest party will be the Conservatives, assuming nothing dramatic happens.

My current estimate is:

  • Conservatives - 150
  • Liberals - 79
  • NDP - 30
  • Bloc - 49


I will update this as I get more information
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2 comments:

  1. IanMarch 23, 2011 at 2:35 PM

    Money in the bank is irrelevant when every big party can get loans for the election. I've heard the NDP is planning to spend the cap, and the Conservatives definitely will. I imagine the Liberals will too, since I think their finances have been a bit better under Ignatieff than Dion. So look at the 3 national parties each spending the same. Perhaps instead give the boost based on pre-election ads, which goes to the Cons, especially since they also have the GoC Economic Action Plan ads running still.

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  2. BernardMarch 23, 2011 at 2:43 PM

    I am thinking of money for the local campaigns, not the national campaigns. As an example, I know that in the Victoria area the three Conservative candidates already have 100% of the money they can spend in the bank. This is where the Conservatives get an advantage

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