Wednesday, April 27, 2011

The polls lately

There have been a number of polls out today and yesterday and they all show the Liberals now in third place with the NDP comfortably in second place.   The gap seems to be about five percentage points between the two.

More interesting is how close the NDP is getting the Conservatives.    The Forum poll has then within three percentage points.   I think that result will ultimately benefit Stephen Harper because it will energize wavering Conservative voters to go to the polls.

I remain confident that my prediction seats won by each party in this election will be close to the mark.   Based on the latest polls, here is where I think the parties will finish in election day:

  • Conservatives 38%
  • NDP 27%
  • Liberals 23%
  • Bloc 7%
  • Greens 5%

I think there will be a drop in election from the polling numbers for the NDP because they do not have the machinery in place to get their new vote out.   I also think their new support is weaker and more likely to not bother going to the polls.

I see some 'shy tory factor' going on.   I am surprised at the number of people who quietly are saying they will support the Conservatives but do not want to say to publicly.  Canadians like Harper as much as Brits liked Thatcher.   I think the Conservatives will out preform their current numbers by a bit.


Ian said...

Do we count the 'shy Tory factor' the same way we account for unreported crimes?

Any prediction on voter turnout?

Bernard said...
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Bernard said...

As to the 'shy tory factor', there certainly is something to people not willing to say they are supporting a party with a leader that is not liked. How does one measure it? You can't, we only know for certain on May 2nd. Last time there was a boost of about 3.5 percentage points for the Conservatives on election day from the last days of the polls.

As to turnout, I think it will be down, but I do not know how far