Friday, March 16, 2012

The pending federal election - what might happen?

The odds of seeing a federal election this year are rising.   The whole robocalls things is getting to a point where there may be no choice other than an election.  Let us say we end up with an election this fall because of it, how would it look?

First, the new ridings will not be in place yet, we will still have the same 308 that we have now.

Second, I am ignoring the polling done of late because I am not certain it is a realistic reflection of what might happen in an election caused by the robocalls scandal.   I am not making a projection on what the polls are saying, but on how I think an election caused by the scandal would play out.

Third, how ready at the parties for an election?

The Conservatives are financially best prepared for an election.  They can run full campaigns in 308 ridings across the country.  They are also the incumbents in the most ridings in Canada.   Overall the Conservatives were a significant factor in 239 ridings in 2011.

The Liberals are out of money and have no organization in most of the country.   In 2011 the Liberals were a factor in only 104 seats.   If the Liberals were to win every seat one of those seats, it would not bring them close enough to anything.   The Liberals are more likely to lose more seats if there were an election in 2012.

The Bloc, I have a hard time judging them because I am not really in touch with Quebec politics well enough.   I think they will be making gains if there were an election this year.

The NDP, they traditionally have not been a factor in more than 70-80 ridings in the country.  In 2011 they were a factor in 232 ridings.  With the leadership race the party has built itself up in many parts of Canada were there was not much in place in the past.

Fourth, how would this election look?
I am going to assume Thomas Mulcair will be the NDP leader.

Conservatives lose seats in BC, Ontario and Quebec.   Possibly on the prairies as well.
The Liberals lose their seats west of Ontario in a Conservative NDP squeeze.  In Ontario they lose seats to the NDP.   Quebec, they may lose some more to the NDP.
I am going to assume the Bloc manages to regain some seats, all of them from the NDP.
The NDP will be the the overwhelming choice of people pissed off with the Conservatives.   I see them gaining seats across the country from the Conservatives and Liberals but lose a few Quebec ones to the Bloc.

Popular Vote Estimate

  • NDP 37% (32%-40%)
  • Conservatives 34%  (30-36%)
  • Liberals 17% (12-20%)
  • Bloc 7% (6-8%)
  • Greens 4% (4%)

Seat Estimate

  • NDP 140  (120-150)
  • Conservatives 130 (125-140)
  • Liberals 20 (5-30)
  • Bloc 17 (5-25)
  • Greens 1 (1)
I think the most likely out come of a 2012 robocall caused election would be an NDP minority government if Thomas Mulcair is the NDP leader.   

The core messaging of the election will be from the NDP about the scandal and the Conservatives about the socialist hordes at the gates.   These two parties will crowd out anyone else in the election.  A 2012 election would be the most ideological in Canadian history.  It would not impossible for the election to play our with the Bloc and Liberals doing worse than I am projecting.  If that were to happen, there is a potential for an NDP majority government.   For minority governments to occur you need either a very close election where a small party holds the balance or four or more parties winning enough seats to get party status.

Given the scale of the Conservative party resources and demographics of who is most likely to vote, they have a certain degree of certainty on a large batch of seats.   The federal Liberals are too far to the left and too disorganized to become a home for disgruntled Conservatives.

If someone else were to lead the NDP, I suspect we would see the Bloc come back with a lot of seats and a parliament that looks something like the 2006 one expect the NDP would in there with 100 seats  and the Liberals with less than 30.   A weak Conservative minority is what I think would happen.


Sacha said...

What would be the trigger to a dissolution of Parliament? To lose the majority, 25 MPs need to resign (or 11 to resign and in a subsequent by-election not have a Conservative MP elected).

Your analysis seems about 20-30 seats generous to the NDP, and I will also agree that the Quebec dynamic is very difficult to predict when you're not living there.

truthmeister said...

2012 robocall caused election? Why where is the scandal? Little bit of wishful thinking on your part. The robocall extent is not known but likely confined to rogue elements, no one has come forward and claimed a denial of a vote and this likely did not change any election result (millions more voted conservative). The country has bigger issues than this pseudo-scandal.

Kelsey H said...

I see it as highly unlikely that a full election would be declared as a result of the robocall scandal. An election can only be called under the Canada Elections Act in instances where "523. (b) there were irregularities, fraud or corrupt or illegal practices that affected the result of the election."

Even if widespread robocalls are proven, it would be pretty tough to argue they affected election results in ridings with margins higher than a thousand votes. At most, I would expect this scandal to produce a few byelections in closely contested ridings where the margin was less than a 100 votes, such as in Etobicoke Centre where an injunction has already been filed to do just that.

Anonymous said...

Is Harper a Conservative? I have been reading, Harper is a Reformer of his, Northern Foundation Party of 1989. Sounds like a shady party to me.

The Campbell/Clark BC Liberals, also work for Harper. Harper posted Gordon Campbell to England as, High Commissioner, after he got the boot from the BC people. Boessenkool is another supposed Harper Conservative, now working for the BC so called Liberals.

The citizens of BC, are not going to forget Harper's part, forcing the HST onto the people. The Campbell/Clark BC liberals, have fouled the name, Liberal. Whether or not that will affect the Federal Liberals, who knows?

The one thing I do know is. I haven't heard one person say, they would ever vote for Harper. Canadians have no use for dictators. They feel Harper has stepped way over the line. It is also said, Harper is handing Canada to China, on a silver platter.

Brian G. Rice said...

Except that 3 different polls since the election fraud scandal broke have all shown that the scandal has not touched the CPC vote one bit. Current seat projections based on these polls ( show a CPC minority with the NDP losing seats and the LPC gaining seats.

Also, there is 0 chance of a general election being called.