Sunday, January 4, 2015

Seats the Federal Liberals could in theory win

BC will have 42 seats in the next federal election and it will be crucial for the Liberals win a decent number of them to have any chance of getting to official opposition or government.  

One of the problems the Liberals have is that there 2011 results were so bad in BC that there are few areas to start to build on.   The rise in the polling for the Liberals in BC could very easily be mainly sucked up by the ridings in which they finished below 10% of the vote.   There not a lot of obvious places the Liberals can win in BC.   21 of the 36 BC MPs elected in 2011 did so with a majority of the vote.  

Currently the Liberals hold

  • Vancouver Centre - this was the narrowest win of any MP in BC, 68% of the population did not vote for Liberal Hedy Fry
  • Vancouver Quadra - Joyce Murray did not win this seat in 2011 with a lot to spare.

If the Liberal vote were to rise by 150% and the Conservatives took a big hit and the NDP declined, here are the seats that are in range of them having a chance at:

  • North Vancouver - The Liberals won this seat in   2004 and 2006
  • Surrey Newton - This will be a three way race and it has been won by the Liberals in the past
  • Vancouver Granville - the Liberals should win this one
  • Vancouver South - The Liberals did badly here in 2011 but normally have won it
  • West Vancouver Sunshine Coast Sea to Sky Country - The Liberals won this seat in 2008

We are now at seven seats in BC - not nearly enough.

There are a couple more really long shots

  • Fleetwood Port Kells
  • Burnaby North Seymour
  • Delta

Adding in the total long shots you get to 10.

Ridings in areas the Liberals have won at some point in the last 20  years but seem to be well out of the race at this time

  • Victoria - The Liberals won this seat in 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2004.  They are better organized here than in most of BC but with a very strong campaign and an NDP incumbent the task to win this seat will be monumental
  • Esquimalt Saanich Sooke - Keith Martin won this seat as a Liberal in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  It was Keith Martin's seat, not a Liberal seat
  • Richmond Centre - The Liberals won Richmond in 1993, 1997, 2004 and 2006
  • Coquitlam Port Coquitlam - they won a 1998 by-election in Port Moody Coquitlam Port Coquitlam 
Even if they could win all of these, and I do not think they have a realistic chance at any of them, they would still only be at 14 seats of 42 in BC.    Add that to the the seats they are likely to win in the West and the Liberals are at only about 24 out of 104 western seats.   

Realistically I can not see a path for the Liberals getting beyond seven seats from BC and 15 in all of Western Canada.   I leaves the Liberals needing to win a lot of the other 234 seats in the country, especially in Quebec.

No comments: