Currently there are 11 NDP, 2 Liberal and 1 Green MLAs from the island. I think things will stay much though the Greens will most likely win Saanich North and the Islands and have a fighting chance to take Victoria Swan Lake.
The NDP has a chance to take Courtenay Comox since there is no Liberal incumbent and the boundaries have changed.
Islnd MLAs by year elected
2005 8
2009 3
2013 3
The ridings that have not changed due to the redistribution:
- Saanich North and the Islands - Gary Holman NDP MLA since 2013
- Saanich South - Lana Popham NDP MLA since 2009
- Victoria Swan Lake - Rob Flemming NDP MLA since 2005
- Cowichan Valley - Bill Routley NDP MLA since 2009
- Nanaimo North Cowichan - Doug Routley NDP MLA 2005
- Nanaimo - Leonard Krog NDP MLA since 2005 and from 1991-96
- North Island - Claire Trevana NDP MLA since 2005
The ridings that have changed due to the redistribution:
- Oak Bay Gordon Head - Andrew Weaver Green MLA since 2013
- Victoria Beacon Hill - Carole James NDP MLA since 2005
- Esquimalt Metchosin (Esquimalt Royal Roads) - Maurine Karagianis NDP MLA since 2005
- Langford Juan de Fuca (Juan de Fuca) - John Horgan NDP MLA since 2005
- Parksville Qualicum - MIchelle Stilwell Liberal MLA since 2013
- Mid Island Pacific Rim (Alberni Pacific Rim) - Scott Fraser NDP MLA since 2005
- Courtenay Comox (Comox Valley) - Don McRae Liberal MLA since 2009 but not running for re-election
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