Last night we had the first game of the leader ball game series and fittingly it was in the home province of baseball in Canada, Quebec.
I tried to watch some of the debate in French. My second oldest son is in late French Immersion now and I am have amazed myself at how much better my French has become. Even Catherine, my ex wife who did a degree in French, has commented at the improvement. Maybe the idea of functionally fluency is not crazy after all. Anyway, I tried catch the debate in French and I managed to get the gist of it what was going on. Watching it without translation helped me get a feeling for how the leaders were in French. I ended up catching more of the debate in transcript and English translation.
So how did they do? They did about as well as I expected them to do, there was nothing surprising happening.
1) Elizabeth May - she had a couple of times at bat, got a walk and some strike outs. She looked like she belonged in the major league, but she did not do anything well enough or badly enough to know if she will stick in the majors. This where I say I am impressed an immigrant has managed to learn to speak French as well as she does. She needs to get a strong hit tonight in the English game to have a chance of staying the majors, I would say she needs a double or better at least once in the game to avoid going back to playing Triple A ball.
2) Gilles Duceppe - he is still a hockey player that could care less about any baseball game. Honestly, why is he bothering to come to the game at all? The Bloc clearly pointed out to everyone last night that their role on the federal level is irrelevant. Giles, in many ways the most engaging and charismatic leader we have seen federally over the last four elections, should take over the PQ in Quebec and bring them into power there.
He will be there for the English game, but I expect him to mess around and not take any of it seriously.
3) Jack Layton - he came up to the plate hoping to show that he was more than a journeyman. He still sounds like an anglo speaking French. He had some nice swings but did not connect with the ball well. One time at bat the crack of the wood sounded strong but with in a moment is was clear it was pop up to left field that was fielded with ease. Best he did on the night was a single but he was left stranded on the base and did not get anyone home with it. If he does the same again tonight I think that there is a good chance the NDP will finish second for the season.
4) Stephen Harper - cool, calm and collected. He knew he needed some runs for his team, he knew that the game was too important for risky anything on something flashy. Three times up at the plate, three times on base. One walk and two competent singles. Nothing for the headlines, but certainly has given his team a much better chance of winning the game.
5) Stephane Dion - why is a curler playing baseball? So many pundits were lowering the expectations of him in the game because he is curler and not a baseball player. The question has to be why is he choosing to play in a baseball game? He was not awful at bat, but he did not reach first base once. His at bats gave nothing for his team. Three strike outs and only once that the wood and ball touched for a foul ball into stands out along the 3rd base line.
The musings on the Liberal Team management is that he needs to be cut from the team. Not just a stint in the minors, but rip up the contract and pay him out. We have seen retired Liberal players being called on to help the team in his place. Paul Martin to be back on the team? He is long past his playing prime and showed everyone just how had weaked as player in the 2004 and 2006 campaigns.
Dion has one last chance tonight to hit a homerun. He really needs it the first time he is at bat and he needs to hit it with a power that is convincing. But who are we kidding, he is a curler and everyone will be amazed if he manages a single.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
The odd results of elections in Canada
Our election is once again going to have some bizarre and crazy results because voters in Canada do not have an equal voice at the ballot box. Some voters get voices that are three to four times as loud as others.
Let us start with the simple fact that the the third place finisher in every riding on Vancouver Island in 2006 got more votes than the most popular MP from PEI. In what world can it make sense for someone to be a more popular choice than anyone in a PEI and come third???? We have a system where every voter in PEI gets almost four votes for everyone we get on Vancouver Island.
The people that lost on Vancouver Island often got more votes than the people elected as MPs in the rest of the country. We have third place finishers on Vancouver Island that would have won with that number of votes in every province of the country. The voters on Vancouver Island simply are denied a reasonable voice in Ottawa.
How does it make sense that Terence Young could get 25148 votes in Oakville and lose? He got more votes than most of the MPs elected but he is not elected.
There are Greens in the last 2 elections that did better at the polls than people elected as MPs. How is it fair the party has no elected MPs even though their candidates are more popular than people that got elected? David Chernushenko in Ottawa Centre and Shane Jolley in Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound got more votes than three MPs that were elected. In 2004 Andrew Lewis in Saanich Gulf Islands got more votes than 12 MPs that were elected.
I defy any to explain how it is fair for people to go into the election and achieve a better result than other people running and lose - to come fourth in some cases.
Why can we not have some sort of equity in this country?
How can anyone serve as an MP in Ottawa knowing they have less of a mandate than people who did not get elected, that their mandate to serve is smaller than people who came fourth in some places?
What moral right is there for people to be given a smaller voice in Ottawa than others?
If we had STV federally, everyone elected would be elected with a mandate of almost indentical size.
If we are to keep the current system, we need to agree to how many people there should be in a riding and stick to that number across the nation. No more devaluing people because they choose to live in Victoria instead of Charlottetown.
Let us start with the simple fact that the the third place finisher in every riding on Vancouver Island in 2006 got more votes than the most popular MP from PEI. In what world can it make sense for someone to be a more popular choice than anyone in a PEI and come third???? We have a system where every voter in PEI gets almost four votes for everyone we get on Vancouver Island.
The people that lost on Vancouver Island often got more votes than the people elected as MPs in the rest of the country. We have third place finishers on Vancouver Island that would have won with that number of votes in every province of the country. The voters on Vancouver Island simply are denied a reasonable voice in Ottawa.
How does it make sense that Terence Young could get 25148 votes in Oakville and lose? He got more votes than most of the MPs elected but he is not elected.
There are Greens in the last 2 elections that did better at the polls than people elected as MPs. How is it fair the party has no elected MPs even though their candidates are more popular than people that got elected? David Chernushenko in Ottawa Centre and Shane Jolley in Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound got more votes than three MPs that were elected. In 2004 Andrew Lewis in Saanich Gulf Islands got more votes than 12 MPs that were elected.
I defy any to explain how it is fair for people to go into the election and achieve a better result than other people running and lose - to come fourth in some cases.
Why can we not have some sort of equity in this country?
How can anyone serve as an MP in Ottawa knowing they have less of a mandate than people who did not get elected, that their mandate to serve is smaller than people who came fourth in some places?
What moral right is there for people to be given a smaller voice in Ottawa than others?
If we had STV federally, everyone elected would be elected with a mandate of almost indentical size.
If we are to keep the current system, we need to agree to how many people there should be in a riding and stick to that number across the nation. No more devaluing people because they choose to live in Victoria instead of Charlottetown.
Fair Vote Canada October 2008 Newsletter
October 2008 / Octobre 2008
For the latest news on voting system reform, visit www.fairvote.ca.
Pour les dernières informations sur la réforme du système électoral, visitez le site Internet www.fairvote.ca/fr .
In this issue
- Election 2008: let’s keep the pressure on - we need volunteers and donations!
- OprhanVoters.ca and the Great Democracy Disaster Contest
- FVC calls on Harper and Dion to support democratic voting
- Dion muffs his pitch to 7.5 million orphan voters
The Liberal leader dodged a caller who asked for his position on election reform and proportional representation. Instead he touted another winner-take-all voting system which would continue to shut out all small-party voters and elect many more Liberals. [See FVC press release.]
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Why this election is depressing me
The federal election in Canada is depressing me because of how the left is acting in the election.
I have never seen a campaign from the left side of the spectrum that is so negative and alarmist. I do not mean the Jack Layton NDP campaign as I do think he is doing a great job in the campaign and focusing more on why the NDP should be the home for your vote than every before. The left I mean at the activists, the environmental groups, the university educated chattering classes and the rest of that ilk.
There is a very strong push for strategic voting to defeat the Conservatives. It is unethical and unprincipled to actively advocate that people strategically vote. The people pushing these campaigns focusing on opposition to a Conservative government feast on public fear and worry. They move out of talking about ideas and visions for a future and into a realm where the only issue in politics that matters is being in power and doing so without an agenda.
I see this as a continuation of a stronger and stronger authoritarian streak in the left in Canada. Many on the left in Canada have abandoned the ideals of democracy, free speech, and equality of people.
In an election I expect to have parties decry the leaders of the other parties, but the attacks on Harper are in a realm that we have rarely seen in Canada. The attacks are less and less about his skills and more about personal issues. Harper is made out to be a bully or controlling, but this is done without evidence and without comparing him to Chretien or Martin before him. It is like people on the left want people to hate Stephen Harper, and that is a disservice to all Canadians. Harper, like Dion, May and Layton, has a passion to make Canada a better country. He is not evil, he is not the devil.
Yes, I know there are those of you out there that will point other leaders have been reviled, but normally that has been because they are at the end of their time as PM and managed to make some serious blunders along the way. Trudeau was hated in the west because of the National Energy Policy that led to people's lives being financially ruined. I did not like the Conservatives attack ads about Dion, but they focused on his potential skills as Prime Minister and not anything personal.
I also see in the left a stronger and stronger hatred of Jews. People say they do not hate Jews they hate the state of Israel. That statement reminds of Evangelical Christians saying about gays they hate the sin but love the sinner. I can dislike and disagree with a government in Israel, but I am not about say they are fundamentally evil as a nation.
Israel is imperfect as a state, but given the fact the country is surrounded by anti-semitic fascists seeking to exterminate them, one has to wonder how they have managed to survive as a democracy with free speech. Israel is not the reason there is no peace. The Palestinians need to give their head a shake and finally accept the fact Israel is there and the Jews are not leaving. Where are the leaders in the Arab world condemning the attacks on Jews? Where are the Mullahs that need to tell people that killing Jews will put people in hell and not heaven?
But in Canada there is a very strong movement that sees Israel as the problem and the fascists as the heroes? In the same way, why does the left in Canada like the proto-fascist in Venezuela?
Getting back to the election, I see this trend in the left that really would like to see a permanent government, without reference to the public, of their view of the left. A government brought about not because of the public being in favour of what they want, but brought about because of fear and a loathing of the 'other'.
I have never seen a campaign from the left side of the spectrum that is so negative and alarmist. I do not mean the Jack Layton NDP campaign as I do think he is doing a great job in the campaign and focusing more on why the NDP should be the home for your vote than every before. The left I mean at the activists, the environmental groups, the university educated chattering classes and the rest of that ilk.
There is a very strong push for strategic voting to defeat the Conservatives. It is unethical and unprincipled to actively advocate that people strategically vote. The people pushing these campaigns focusing on opposition to a Conservative government feast on public fear and worry. They move out of talking about ideas and visions for a future and into a realm where the only issue in politics that matters is being in power and doing so without an agenda.
I see this as a continuation of a stronger and stronger authoritarian streak in the left in Canada. Many on the left in Canada have abandoned the ideals of democracy, free speech, and equality of people.
In an election I expect to have parties decry the leaders of the other parties, but the attacks on Harper are in a realm that we have rarely seen in Canada. The attacks are less and less about his skills and more about personal issues. Harper is made out to be a bully or controlling, but this is done without evidence and without comparing him to Chretien or Martin before him. It is like people on the left want people to hate Stephen Harper, and that is a disservice to all Canadians. Harper, like Dion, May and Layton, has a passion to make Canada a better country. He is not evil, he is not the devil.
Yes, I know there are those of you out there that will point other leaders have been reviled, but normally that has been because they are at the end of their time as PM and managed to make some serious blunders along the way. Trudeau was hated in the west because of the National Energy Policy that led to people's lives being financially ruined. I did not like the Conservatives attack ads about Dion, but they focused on his potential skills as Prime Minister and not anything personal.
I also see in the left a stronger and stronger hatred of Jews. People say they do not hate Jews they hate the state of Israel. That statement reminds of Evangelical Christians saying about gays they hate the sin but love the sinner. I can dislike and disagree with a government in Israel, but I am not about say they are fundamentally evil as a nation.
Israel is imperfect as a state, but given the fact the country is surrounded by anti-semitic fascists seeking to exterminate them, one has to wonder how they have managed to survive as a democracy with free speech. Israel is not the reason there is no peace. The Palestinians need to give their head a shake and finally accept the fact Israel is there and the Jews are not leaving. Where are the leaders in the Arab world condemning the attacks on Jews? Where are the Mullahs that need to tell people that killing Jews will put people in hell and not heaven?
But in Canada there is a very strong movement that sees Israel as the problem and the fascists as the heroes? In the same way, why does the left in Canada like the proto-fascist in Venezuela?
Getting back to the election, I see this trend in the left that really would like to see a permanent government, without reference to the public, of their view of the left. A government brought about not because of the public being in favour of what they want, but brought about because of fear and a loathing of the 'other'.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
The Leaders Debate
I am going to use a baseball analogy for the English language leaders debate.
What we are all looking for is to see someone hit a home run in the debate, what we normally get are strikeouts, walks and singles. A good walk or single gets you an RBI and those are more important for your team than any personal glory of a home run.
Elizabeth May is the young rookie that is being allowed to try out in the majors and see if she can stick or if hse is back on the next bus to Peoria. She can survive a strikeout in the debate if she looks strong in her swings, though she really needs at least a single to have any chance of sticking in the majors. She has the danger of choking when faced with being in the major league lights. Anything better than a single and she will be star of the night and will likely get a permanent contract in the majors.
Gilles Duceppe is not a baseball player, he wants to be playing hockey but has enough hubris to show up and play ball. Frankly if I were him I would blow off the baseball game because it is a stupid sport and does nothing for him. His team is not even in the league. No one cares how he does when he is at bat as he will already won or lost the hockey game the night before. In the event that he can hit a homer in a game he does not play in, this will not mean he will be a major leaguer, it just means the other batters will be seen as useless.
Jack Layton has had a good couple of weeks of play lately and is coming into the game with some higher expectations that usual. He needs to come up with a stong single to at least to maintain his batting average and help with the team score. A double or triple would mean he would boost his RBIs past Dion and be second in the stats. A home run from Jack would redefine the league, the problem is that Jack has a history of being a journeyman player and really has no history of hitting anything out of the park. His dream is that he will get that home run and be seen as one of the top stars in the league. His dream may push him to over reach and to strike out badly in front of the crowds. No hit from Jack means he will retiring in a few months from active play.
Stephen Harper has a strong batting average and is a man that plays the stats and not for the crowd. He is going to seek a single or double that will boost the team score. He is not a crowd pleaser and will not even try to get that home run. If he gets a strikeout all he does is revive the pennant race again for a few more days.
Stephane Dion - the best curler to ever try to play major league ball. This is a guy that could win the gold in curling but has chosen to play baseball. He is clearly without any ball game strengths. Lately he has been saying the reason his team's season has been so bad is because the umps have been against him - the classic sign of a player and team that are in much deeper trouble than they know.
Dion needs a home run. Anything less than a home run and his team finishes behind Jakc Layton's team. A home run would revive his team's chances of a run at the pennant again in a future season. But Dion in no Sammy Sosa, he is a curler that has a batting average of something like .145. Dion has never managed a single, let alone a home run in major league play. We are talking miracle time for Dion.
Dion may be coming into the baseball game injured by Harper and Duceppe in the hockey game the night before. He may barely be able to lift the bat. He only has one play that he can make that would avoid his team coming in last place - he needs to step into the pitch and get hit to get to first base.
What we are all looking for is to see someone hit a home run in the debate, what we normally get are strikeouts, walks and singles. A good walk or single gets you an RBI and those are more important for your team than any personal glory of a home run.
Elizabeth May is the young rookie that is being allowed to try out in the majors and see if she can stick or if hse is back on the next bus to Peoria. She can survive a strikeout in the debate if she looks strong in her swings, though she really needs at least a single to have any chance of sticking in the majors. She has the danger of choking when faced with being in the major league lights. Anything better than a single and she will be star of the night and will likely get a permanent contract in the majors.
Gilles Duceppe is not a baseball player, he wants to be playing hockey but has enough hubris to show up and play ball. Frankly if I were him I would blow off the baseball game because it is a stupid sport and does nothing for him. His team is not even in the league. No one cares how he does when he is at bat as he will already won or lost the hockey game the night before. In the event that he can hit a homer in a game he does not play in, this will not mean he will be a major leaguer, it just means the other batters will be seen as useless.
Jack Layton has had a good couple of weeks of play lately and is coming into the game with some higher expectations that usual. He needs to come up with a stong single to at least to maintain his batting average and help with the team score. A double or triple would mean he would boost his RBIs past Dion and be second in the stats. A home run from Jack would redefine the league, the problem is that Jack has a history of being a journeyman player and really has no history of hitting anything out of the park. His dream is that he will get that home run and be seen as one of the top stars in the league. His dream may push him to over reach and to strike out badly in front of the crowds. No hit from Jack means he will retiring in a few months from active play.
Stephen Harper has a strong batting average and is a man that plays the stats and not for the crowd. He is going to seek a single or double that will boost the team score. He is not a crowd pleaser and will not even try to get that home run. If he gets a strikeout all he does is revive the pennant race again for a few more days.
Stephane Dion - the best curler to ever try to play major league ball. This is a guy that could win the gold in curling but has chosen to play baseball. He is clearly without any ball game strengths. Lately he has been saying the reason his team's season has been so bad is because the umps have been against him - the classic sign of a player and team that are in much deeper trouble than they know.
Dion needs a home run. Anything less than a home run and his team finishes behind Jakc Layton's team. A home run would revive his team's chances of a run at the pennant again in a future season. But Dion in no Sammy Sosa, he is a curler that has a batting average of something like .145. Dion has never managed a single, let alone a home run in major league play. We are talking miracle time for Dion.
Dion may be coming into the baseball game injured by Harper and Duceppe in the hockey game the night before. He may barely be able to lift the bat. He only has one play that he can make that would avoid his team coming in last place - he needs to step into the pitch and get hit to get to first base.
Another Possible Green MP
In of all places, Nunavut. Seems Elizabeth May has recruited for MP Peter Ittinuar to run in the riding he represented from 1979 to 1984.
In the north, elections are different than down in the south, the voting base is much smaller and the people know each other much better. The person matters a lot more up there than anywhere else in Canada.
Can Peter win? I have no idea, but this is a race I will be watching on election night once I am done watching the votes being counted at my polling place - I am a poll captain this election again.
In the north, elections are different than down in the south, the voting base is much smaller and the people know each other much better. The person matters a lot more up there than anywhere else in Canada.
Can Peter win? I have no idea, but this is a race I will be watching on election night once I am done watching the votes being counted at my polling place - I am a poll captain this election again.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Seat projections for Sept 27 2008
There have been some shifts in the election lately.
Quebec
The biggest has been the rise in the Bloc fortunes in Quebec. They have moved from the low 30s to around 40% in the province. This rise brings them back into the 50 seat range because the federalist vote is much more divided.
The issue will be what happens to the seats in the Liberal heartland of Montreal and Ottawa-Hull? I do not see the Conservatives doing well in these areas and I am not sure NDP support will rise enough to win seats. The Bloc may pick up some surprising seats in these areas.
In the more Francophone Quebec, the race really is a two party race - Conservatives versus the Bloc. I believe the Conservatives will be able to hold seats in this area and may pick up a coupld of seats.
Atlantic Canada
I will say I am surprised at the how well the Conservatives are doing in the Atlantic provinces. The rumours of their demise are a bit early. I am assuming they will do badly in Newfoundland and their support is elsewhere in Atlantic Canada. I can see them gaining seats in the other three provinces. Could they break in on the red island? I think so and a sweep is more likely than Jack Layton as leader of the Official Opposition.
Given the rise of the Conservative fortunes in the region, I give the edge to MacKay over May.
BC
Nothing much is changing here other than the Liberals know they are in very serious trouble. A shut out in BC is possible for them. Retaining more than a handful of their seats is simply not on the cards.
The question in BC is if the NDP can hold all their seats or not.
Ontario
This election is playing out in Ontario. This is where Harper needs the seats to get the majority. It also the place where Dion has to retain his seats to stay ahead of the Bloc, or maybe ahead of the NDP.
What I can make out of the polling is that every riding where the Liberals did not win by more than 10 percentage points is now clearly lost to them - 13 to the Conservatives and 6 to the NDP. There are about ten more ridings that were once considered safe that are more likely Conservative than Liberal this time.
Whatever the result in the election, there is a new reality dawning in Canada. The 2006-08 Harper government was the first one in Canadian history that had a majority of their caucus form the west. The next Harper government will be close to having a majority from the West again.
When the new seats are added in Canada, 12 of the 22 will be from BC and Alberta. These provinces have 20.8% of the seats in Canada now but will have 23% by the next election. They will have more seats than Quebec. Western Canada will have almost as many seats as Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
When Mulroney won in 1984, the west only had as many seats as Quebec. For generations Canada's national elections have been about which party can win both Ontario and Quebec. With the rise in seats in BC and Alberta, future elections will require winning in these provinces.
This change is very bad news for the Liberals in the long term. The Liberals are not a strong party west of Ontario. The natural opposition to the Conservatives in the west is the NDP.
Before 1984 the Liberal party went into most national elections with a safe 50-70 seats in Quebec, more or less half way to a majority. Now we have the Conservatives going into federal elections with a safe 70 seats in the West and after the new seats are added this will rise to 75-80.
The 12 seats in BC and Alberta are balanced by 10 seats in Ontario. The Ontario seats will be slightly more prone to be Conservative than any other party as many of them will be in the 905 area.
If we look further into the future, by 2020 BC, Alberta and Ontario will gain more seats. If it is the same number as now, this takes us to 352 MPs of which 88 will be from BC and Alberta, a full quarter of the MPs. BC alone will have around 48 MPs. Even with all these new MPs, BC, Alberta and Ontario will still be underrepresented.
By 2030, BC and Alberta are estimated to have a total population of between 9 000 000 and 10 500 000. If we are anywhere close to the larger number, the underrepresentation will mean the two provinces are down by about 10 to 13 seats.
Quebec
The biggest has been the rise in the Bloc fortunes in Quebec. They have moved from the low 30s to around 40% in the province. This rise brings them back into the 50 seat range because the federalist vote is much more divided.
The issue will be what happens to the seats in the Liberal heartland of Montreal and Ottawa-Hull? I do not see the Conservatives doing well in these areas and I am not sure NDP support will rise enough to win seats. The Bloc may pick up some surprising seats in these areas.
In the more Francophone Quebec, the race really is a two party race - Conservatives versus the Bloc. I believe the Conservatives will be able to hold seats in this area and may pick up a coupld of seats.
Atlantic Canada
I will say I am surprised at the how well the Conservatives are doing in the Atlantic provinces. The rumours of their demise are a bit early. I am assuming they will do badly in Newfoundland and their support is elsewhere in Atlantic Canada. I can see them gaining seats in the other three provinces. Could they break in on the red island? I think so and a sweep is more likely than Jack Layton as leader of the Official Opposition.
Given the rise of the Conservative fortunes in the region, I give the edge to MacKay over May.
BC
Nothing much is changing here other than the Liberals know they are in very serious trouble. A shut out in BC is possible for them. Retaining more than a handful of their seats is simply not on the cards.
The question in BC is if the NDP can hold all their seats or not.
Ontario
This election is playing out in Ontario. This is where Harper needs the seats to get the majority. It also the place where Dion has to retain his seats to stay ahead of the Bloc, or maybe ahead of the NDP.
What I can make out of the polling is that every riding where the Liberals did not win by more than 10 percentage points is now clearly lost to them - 13 to the Conservatives and 6 to the NDP. There are about ten more ridings that were once considered safe that are more likely Conservative than Liberal this time.
| Party | BC | AB | SK | MN | ON | QC | NB | NS | PEI | NF | Nth | CAN |
| CPC | 28 | 28 | 13 | 10 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 167 |
| LPC | 1 | | | 2 | 29 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 54 |
| NDP | 7 | | 1 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | | 1 | | 35 |
| Bloc | | | | | | 50 | | | | | | 50 |
| Ind | | | | | | 1 | | 1 | | | | 2 |
Whatever the result in the election, there is a new reality dawning in Canada. The 2006-08 Harper government was the first one in Canadian history that had a majority of their caucus form the west. The next Harper government will be close to having a majority from the West again.
When the new seats are added in Canada, 12 of the 22 will be from BC and Alberta. These provinces have 20.8% of the seats in Canada now but will have 23% by the next election. They will have more seats than Quebec. Western Canada will have almost as many seats as Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
When Mulroney won in 1984, the west only had as many seats as Quebec. For generations Canada's national elections have been about which party can win both Ontario and Quebec. With the rise in seats in BC and Alberta, future elections will require winning in these provinces.
This change is very bad news for the Liberals in the long term. The Liberals are not a strong party west of Ontario. The natural opposition to the Conservatives in the west is the NDP.
Before 1984 the Liberal party went into most national elections with a safe 50-70 seats in Quebec, more or less half way to a majority. Now we have the Conservatives going into federal elections with a safe 70 seats in the West and after the new seats are added this will rise to 75-80.
The 12 seats in BC and Alberta are balanced by 10 seats in Ontario. The Ontario seats will be slightly more prone to be Conservative than any other party as many of them will be in the 905 area.
If we look further into the future, by 2020 BC, Alberta and Ontario will gain more seats. If it is the same number as now, this takes us to 352 MPs of which 88 will be from BC and Alberta, a full quarter of the MPs. BC alone will have around 48 MPs. Even with all these new MPs, BC, Alberta and Ontario will still be underrepresented.
By 2030, BC and Alberta are estimated to have a total population of between 9 000 000 and 10 500 000. If we are anywhere close to the larger number, the underrepresentation will mean the two provinces are down by about 10 to 13 seats.
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