Tuesday, March 17, 2009

BC Liberal Party Leadership Race

I am 99% sure this is the last election for Gordon Campbell as leader of the BC Liberals. I believe he will resign sometime after the election, but when?

I am certain his resignation will be after the Olympic Games, so he will be premier through to the end of the Paralympic Games on March 21st of 2010, but how much longer after that?

He needs to leave his successor enough time before the election in 2013 to allow them to have a track record in office. To me this means he needs to step down before the spring session of the house in 2012. He also needs to announce it early enough to allow for there to be a race to replace him at a Liberal convention in the fall. The normal cycle has a Liberal convention in the fall of 2010 and 2012. The 2012 convention is too late.

Based on all of this, I see Gordon Campbell announcing his retirement at the end of the spring session of the house in 2010 with the new leader to take over in the fall of 2010.

So who is there that will replace him? I am not sure who I see in the race at this point. The next leader needs to have a proven track record in politics, they realistically need to be born between 1952 and 1975, and they need to have the drive and desire to become leader.

Here are some names in no particular order, just throwing some ideas out there.
  • Colin Hansen - he would be 60 when taking over, a bit on the old side to become premier.
  • Christy Clark - this is her chance to do it, not going for it this time may push her out of contention for the future.
  • Keith Martin - he has done everything he can at the federal level and has a strong personal appeal. Though he needs someone to help him organize if were to try
  • George Abbot - though I have no idea if he has the desire to be premier
  • Mary Polak - only realistic if she gets a stronger public presence between now and the timing of the race. If she gets a major cabinet post after the election, I see her as a candidate for leader.
  • Kevin Falcon - he has the organizational skills to win a race, but he also has more baggage than most of the Liberals. Right hand man to Rich Coleman might work better for him
  • Dave Hayer - maybe, not convinced he has the desire, but I am certain there will be at least one Sihk running in any leadership race.
  • Mike de Jong - I see him being a candidate and see him having good odds of winning
  • Rich Coleman - I see him running to be the standard bearer of the right wing
  • MP Suhk Dhaliwal - The provincial scene may offer him more to go after for his ambition than the federal scene.
  • Surrey Mayor Diane Watts could make a very interesting person to be in the race.
On personal level I would like to see Coquitlam Mayor and former MLA Richard Stewart run for leader of the BC Liberals.


Anonymous said...

He will resign the night of May 12, 2009.

Bernard said...

I really do not think he will announce his resignations on the night he wins his third majority.

If you think the NDP are going to win the election, tell me what evidence you see of that happening. I have been asking people to give any realistic scenario that sees the Liberals losing the NDP winning. No one has suggested anything realistic.

Anonymous said...

I would give better than even odds to Surrey mayor Dianne Watts. Very well respected (86% in November's ballot) and inclusive of centre-left councillors such as Judy Villenueve in her Surrey First muni-party.

She's positive, a doer/go-getter, and her economic strengths are balanced by her social strengths.

And she can appeal to both urban and rural voters at the same time.

And yes Campbell will likely be gone by 2011 - 2012, at which time he will have served around 18 years as party leader.

My two cents.

Anonymous said...

Because just like all their cohorts south of the border, they will succumb to their own hubris and get trapped in their own schemes and lies.

Bernard said...

Quimby, you need to make yourself clear as to who you are referring to. Last time I checked, Liberals in Canada are more or less in sync with the US Democrats.

Anonymous said...

The BC Liberal party is more a west coast/California Republican then Democrats.

But Canada, and BC, differ from the US and what the US shows is that deregulation, growth/development at any cost types (like Campbell's "Liberals") are destined to succumb to their own misdeeds and hubris.

The Liberals are responsible for helping to inflate the bubble that just burst, and will pay the price.

In fact the Liberal bubble when compared to the NDPs "Lost Decade" perform at a lower annual rate in GDP growth. Which flies in the face of the Liberal myth that only they can manage a growing economy.

Bernard said...

Interesting take you have their Quimby since there are few substantive policy differences between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals. The BC Liberals have been more active on climate change and are much more open to First Nations than the federal party.

So in your opinion the Liberals nationally are like the Republicans? Or at least California Republicans?

Meanwhile BC is slated to have close to the best economic performance in North America this year and next year. This certainly points to the Liberals doing better.

During the NDP era BC's growth rate was often below the national average.

Anonymous said...

Yeah no substantive policy differences, except the Campbell doesn't follow policy nor election promises and it is a disaster.

Plus, they represent the very belief system that caused the economic meltdown. How can any vote for the same person that caused it?

Anonymous said...

Employment in B.C. increased 22 per cent during the 1990s -- much faster than the 16 per cent growth for Canada as a whole. Housing starts in B.C. averaged 29,000 per year between 1991 and 2000, a higher rate per capita than the 29,800 annual average during the "boom" period of 2001 to 2007.
What about all those 1990s economic refugees fleeing B.C.?
B.C. gained an average of 14,000 people annually from net interprovincial migration from 1991 to 2000 compared with just 4,300 annually for 2001 to 2007. The BC Liberals inherited a record surplus then ran record deficits.
The 1990s weren't as bad as that the BC Liberals would have us believe.

Bernard said...


Anonymous said...

Leave these two alone Bernard. They really have no idea what they are taking about and clearly are not willing to shift their opinion when presented with the facts. The 30 comments under one post in my blog can attest to that.

As for the leaders, I see 3 main front runners at this point.

Rick Coleman - you are right to say that he will be the right side's standard bearer. I personally see this as a problem as the BC Liberals have been very adept at alienating centrists from the BCNDP.

Colin Hanson - his economic credentials are a boost, especially when the province will most likely still struggling with poor world wide economic conditions. I temper my statement by saying that I still believe as you do Bernard, that BC will be in a great position in North America.

Christie Clark - I see her being the real spoiler of the race. She will certainly not be something to scoff at as she has the 'machine' behind her.

Who do I see winning? The odds on favorite as of right now would have to be Rich Coleman, but don't count out Colin yet.

Anonymous said...

Bernard, these NDP hacks are known to select favorable statistics and then try to generalize it.

Like they will find one species that multiplied better than average in the 1990s (red tailed one-legged frogs) and then claim because their birth rate increased then NDP had a stellar environmental record.

They lie by selectively picking statistics. And they avoid fundamental statistics that economists use.

Then they also misread the charts. Quimby is unable to read even simple charts on VoteSmart.

Anonymous said...

The worst thing that can happen for the Liberals is to select a standard conservative, as opposed to a neo-conservative or a classic liberal.

That will certainly usher in 8 years of NDP. No question about it.

Rick Coleman sounds dangerous.

De Jong is the horse I will bet on.


Anonymous said...

No-one will want to be the leader after may12th/2009--The smoking wreckage of the liberal corpse will have to be buried,the Liberals are down 11 points in their own internal polls,Campbell will probably lose his own riding!

Campbell thinks by splashing deficit spending around will win him votes,wrong,it will create a backlash around the province,people,79% of people believe Campbell is NOT HONEST or TRUSTWORTHY.
After may 12th/2009--The liberal party will go the way of the WHIGs--Caput.