Some Quick Polling Analysis

Over the last eight days we have 9 national polls to work with and here are how the numbers are shaping up:

• Conservatives - ave 38.3% median 38%
• Liberals - ave 26.9% median 26%
• NDP - ave 16.1% -1.4 median 15%
• Bloc - ave 8.1% median 9%
• Greens - ave 9.0% median 9%

This puts the Greens at double their support from 2006. The Conservatives are up a healthy 2 percentage points while the Liberals are down 3.3 percentage points from 2006.

The Bloc numbers have been a bit more over the map, but seem to indicate that their vote is down by 25%.

The NDP have also been jumping around in the polls from a low of 13% to a high of 21%. At the moment they are polling down from the 2006 result by 1.4 percentage points. This is possibly a bigger problem for them as they have been polling a lot higher in Quebec and therefore is lower in the rest of the country.

Another Problem Liberal Candidate in Quebec

Yesterday I mentioned Richardo Lopez as a Liberal candidate in Quebec, I thought he would be gone soon. Seems he like he is not the only 'problem' Liberal in Quebec.

Former radio show host Simon Bedard has been asked to resign as a Liberal candidate in the Quebec City area.

The Liberals look to be in very serious trouble in Quebec.

Could Canadians be Looking for the Harper Secret Agenda?

There are numerous things ascribed to the Harper Secret Agenda - the one that is 'supposed' to happen if he manages to get a majority. There is one aspect that could be much more popular than most of the other political parties might be willing to accept. Reducing the federal government, reduce spending and getting out of provincial areas of responsiblity, and reducing taxation are all surprisly popular ideas with a large number of Canadians.

We can see how this played out in the Commonsense Revolution in Ontario, Restraint in BC, and the rise of the Reform Party in 1993. There are a lot of people out there that feel they pay too much for government and do not get enough benefit.

Honestly, it is hard to explain to most people what benefit they get from the federal government for the income taxes they pay. The best known federal programs are EI, OAP and CPP - they are all self funding and do not need taxes. Our military is next and most people are ok with what is spend on them. After this there are few clear beneficial programs most people can name. The reality is that almost all the government programs people see are from the provincial or municipal governments.

I raise this because I have had some interesting conversations with some NDP types. Seems they would be willing to endure a four year Harper government if it meant a fundamental downsizing of the money spent by the federal government. As one of them said "We need a major house cleaning in Ottawa and then start again with what is really needed from the ground up".

As one of my conversations was going on, I asked if the person would be willing to vote for the local Conservative candidate. The answer was "Yes, if it meant we would see a real change in Ottawa."

It reminds me of talking with a number of the people in the Reform party in the 1990s. Many of the older people had been with the CCF and NDP but felt that the party was not willing to do want it takes to fix things in Ottawa. This sentiment is not gone, it is still there and waiting for someone to tap into it. It is not only in BC and the rest of the west, but also 905 Ontario, and suburban and rural Quebec.

These areas represent about 180 of 308 ridings in Canada - enough to win a majority without any seats in the rest of the country. Danny Williams matters less in this election that people in Surrey BC or Newmarket Ontario.

Seat Projections from the UBC ESM

The current numbers from the UBC Election Stockmarket suggest the following outcome:

• Conservatives 144
• Liberals 85
• NDP 46
• Bloc 34
• Others 3

Yes, this adds up to more than 308 seats, but that is the nature of the market from time to time, people are over estimating when they buy and under estimating when they sell. What this says to me is that one of the parties is going down and it has not yet hit the market.

The market has often underestimated the Bloc seats in past elections. To me the Bloc numbers look accurate this time, well at least for the moment. I think the error in the past comes from most of us involved in the market are anglos from the west and a lot of people out here simply do not understand the Bloc.

The NDP vote looks high, but the market is often better at predicting changes in the elections earlier than any other source. Layton may really be on the rise.

Some stuff I put together for Sean Holman and Public Eye Online.

What Next in this Election?

I am reasonably confident that Stephen Harper will get a majority in this election, but there are some other results beyond that which matter to Canada and I hope will happen.

1. The Bloc looks like it is going down - I think this is a very good thing as they have been sitting on sits in Ottawa for no benefit to anyone in the country. The Bloc is no longer a revolt against the status quo, but more reminder some people do not like it. I would like to see them reduced fourth party status and less than 30 seats. There end is in sight, though they may linger on like the Creditistes did.
2. It would benefit the country if the NDP became the official opposition. Clearly Layton has been the real opposition to the government for the last two and half years and a Harper majority needs a strong principled opposition that will hold their feet to the fire. The NDP is the only party that can do this. If they manage to get to official opposition, they will be the smallest since 1984.
3. I would like to see the Liberals reduced to third or fourth party in the house. I would like to see them not win a single seat west of Ontario and be more or less shut out of Quebec. The Liberals are the sort of elitist government that I hate. They are awful in opposition. They are the party least guided by beliefs or principles. They have been bad for Canada for a long time now. We would have been better off with Conservatives and NDP holding power than the Liberals.
4. I would like to see the Greens elect a few MPs. I think they will be very hard pressed to win any seats and then three or four is about it, but I believe they are a new sort of thinking in politics that is needed in Ottawa. They are neither left nor right in the traditional sense and show people that those labels are outdated.

Interesting Piece from Norman Spector

Norman Spector is blogging for the Globe and Mail during this election. He has a very interesting little tid bit today.

Seems that Ricardo Lopez, former Mulroney era PC MP, is running for the Liberals in Beauharnois-Salaberry. He ran in 2000 for the Canadian Alliance in Châteauguay.

Given his comments about Oka and his social conservative views on abortion, I suspect that the Liberals will drop him as a candidate in the next 24 to 48 hours.

His nomination shows to me how far the Liberals have fallen in Quebec. Beauharnois Salaberry was until 2006 reasonable competitive ground for the party, now they are irrelevant to the race in the riding.