Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Toronto Danforth by-election

We are 20 days till the by-election to fill the Toronto-Danforth riding.

In Ontario because the provincial ridings have been the same as the federal ridings since the late 1990s, it is possible to see over two sets of elections what the trends are in the riding.  The results from before 2003 are for Broadview-Greenwood which was very similar to Toronto-Danforth

  • Election  NDP   Libs  Cons Green   
  • 2011 Ont 53.98 30.66  9.41  3.57
  • 2011 Fed 60.80 17.62 14.32  6.46
  • 2008 Fed 44.78 29.38 11.65 13.21
  • 2007 Ont 45.93 29.16 11.44 11.10
  • 2006 Ont 47.80 38.92  9.93  2.13 by-election
  • 2006 Fed 48.42 34.23  9.90  7.11
  • 2004 Fed 46.34 41.34  6.21  5.38
  • 2003 Ont 47.14 31.63 16.95  3.53
  • 2000 Fed 27.65 51.90 15.72  1.96 Cons=CA+PC
  • 1999 Ont 46.92 24.69 24.70  ----
  • 1997 Fed 32.77 49.76 15.28  1.00 Cons=CA+PC
  • 1993 Fed 13.95 61.07 20.63  ---- Cons=Ref+PC
  • 1988 Fed 35.96 38.89 22.42  0.73

So it would seem there is little or no danger of anyone other than the NDP winning this riding.   In 13 elections the NDP have won 9.  The last one they lost was in 2000.     The previous boundaries for Broadview-Greenwood were used for four elections and one by-election and all of them were won by the NDP.

Jack Layton was elected the first time in 2004 and did not have a huge win.   He did decently in 2006 and 2008 but did not have a big win till 2011.   If we factor out the 2011 federal election result, the NDP does not look as dominant, but would not seem to be in any danger of losing

My estimate is:

There was a poll conducted on February 12th that indicated the Liberals were miles behind, basically just a bit ahead of the Conservatives.   The poll actually looks very similar to the results in the 2011 election.   I am not convinced that the poll, which was small and conducted only a few days after the campaign was underway, is an accurate reflection of where the voters are at.

Just to note, the leader of the Canadian Action Party, Chris Porter of Victoria BC, is running in this by-election.   He has raised $8.878 to date, a long way from the $100,000 he needs to have an impact.

The leader of the United Party of Canada, Brian Jedan is running as well.

Hastag for the by-election is #TorDan.


bbbbb90 said...

I am not so sure...the NDPs seem to need to get together in the HOC. It would be great in memory of Jack, but

I think that the Libs are in ascendance via Bob Ray and Robocalls. The NDP MPs are young and eager but just cannot seal the deal. This riding is sophiticated, they may turn in the interest of the Dominion...

Bernard said...

Which is why I rating the Liberals close to their trend of the last four elections. I still do not see anything saying to me that the Liberals have recovered enough to make a race of this campaign