Sunday, August 9, 2015

Political cartoon about door to door canvassing

Stephen has done another political cartoon for the election.   Yesterday he was the only home when the NDP came to door asked this question. 

Saturday, August 8, 2015

A political cartoon by Stephen

How can anyone be a child of mine and not be forced to be active politically in some way.   I asked my 15 year old son Stephen to try and make a political cartoon each day of the election.  Here is the first one

Monday, August 3, 2015

10 Reasons why Harper Calling an Early Election is Bad for the Conservatives

Let me start by saying that the early writ drop is something I have dreamed of for months now but I did not expect it because it is such a dumb idea for the PM.

10 - With the call the PM and cabinet no longer have the resources of the civil service to promote their program.  They now need to spend CPC money to travel.  All the government advertising and press releases are suspended till after the election.  A governing party has a huge advantage till the election is called.  Why give this up early?

9 - Long campaigns favour prepared challengers over incumbents in our elections.  In the run up to the 1993 Federal election the Reform party had been actively campaigning in most of the 52 seats they won for a year.

8 - A 77 day campaign is great local campaigns because 36 days is much too short to run a strong ground game.  I am running the ground campaign for the Green Party in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and this early election call is a God send because now we will have the volunteers to knock on every door at least twice.   My estimate is that each extra week of the campaign will be worth about 750 more votes.   (Results for other parties in other ridings will vary) 

7 - The media will now give Harper, Mulcair and Trudeau equal time.  Everyday the three of them will compared and contrasted and I do not think that will benefit Harper.

6 - August is silly season in the media normally, now imagine silly season with a requirement to cover the election every day and there is an endless election campaign?

5 - The longer the campaign the more time there will be for CPC candidates to say something truly stupid.  Yes this is the case for the other parties but the CPC is defending more turf and therefore has more to lose.

4 - Longer campaigns will mean more money raised locally early enough to have an impact on the election.

My experience of  many election campaigns is that the public does not really pay attention till the election is officially under way.   This has meant that on most campaigns I have been involved donations do not come in till about three to five weeks into the campaign but that is often too late to usefully spend the money.

This time we will at the same point around Labour Day giving campaigns a boost in cash with 35 to 40 days to go.

3 - Election fatigue.   11 weeks of signs and election ads will push buttons among the public.   And I think the party with the most media advertising will take the most anger/frustration from the public.

2 - General party fundraising will go up dramatically during the election.  Parties raise a lot of money during elections and with five extra weeks all the parties will raise more money but I suspect the CPC will no longer have as much of an advantage because the many more CPC donors have already maxed out their giving.

1 - A long public campaign will make the campaign unpredictable.   If you are the incumbent PM and not way behind in the polls you want a predictable campaign.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

Why do I not unsubcribe?

because I have perverse of humour and find these ultra right wing fundraisng letters from US candidates entertaining.  

Here is one for the only Canadian running for US president, Ted Cruz

Cruz For President
Dear Bernard,

I'm about to ask you to make a sacrifice in the next 48 hours. But before I do, I want you to know: I wouldn't ask you if I hadn't already done it myself.

Please let me briefly explain.

You see, running for President of the United States is a significant sacrifice. Only through prayer and many late night discussions with my wife, family, and closest friends did I makeTHE decision.

And I must share with you -- I've committed to sacrificing a great deal for our campaign:
     >>> Time with my family: Spending almost every day on the campaign trail or fighting on the Senate floor means precious little time spent with my wife, Heidi, and my daughters -- the very family that gives me the motivation and drive to fight.
     >>> Health and sleep: My runoff campaign for the Senate in 2012 took a toll, but now I'm sacrificing even more sleep with long nights and constant travel. And the pizza diet is a staple on the campaign trail.
     >>> Finances: the cost of campaigning back and forth across the country for president is increasingly expensive, but Heidi and I are willing to invest our livelihoods into this sacrifice.
     >>> Personal time: You think of this the least, but as a candidate, my days are no longer my own. Days start before dawn and many times don't end until early the next morning. There is almost no personal time when you run for president.
Bernard, I've chosen to sacrifice part of mine and my families lives to run for President -- but I think you will agree with me that the sacrifice is well worth it.

Unless courageous conservatives are willing to make tough sacrifices to stand up and fight, we will not be able to restore America.

Today, I'm asking you to make a sacrifice BernardWill you join me by making a special, one-time gift to my campaign?

I've asked my staff to put together these secure links below so you can make an instant and secure sacrificial gift -- it can be done in just 5 minutes.




Will you be a courageous conservative and make a special gift today to help restore America? I can only reach this goal with your help.

I wouldn't ask you if 1) I wasn't willing to make the same sacrifice myself; and 2) the stakes weren't so high.

Bernard, time is critical, and if you will, please make this special gift in the next 48 hours -- I would be so grateful.

For liberty,

Ted Cruz

P.S. Bernard, I've chosen to make some steep, necessary sacrifices in our fight to restore America. Will you join me with your gift of $250 or $100? OR if $35 or $10 is a stretch gift for you, I will be grateful for every dollar you can sacrifice and will ensure it is faithfully used.

Friday, May 29, 2015

Votes in Alberta General Election Results

I find it interesting how over the last 40 years the total votes for the PCs in Alberta has remained relatively stable.   From 1975 to 2008 the PC total vote tracked somewhat closely to the total vote.  It is in 2012 and 2015 that this pattern changed.  The PC vote remained in their traditional band but the total number of voters increased dramatically

What this says to me is that in 2012 a whole bunch of social conservatives came out to vote for Wildrose that had not been voting.  At the same time traditional Liberal voters seem to have gone to the PCs in that election.

In 2015 it seems that several hundred thousand left of centre voters bothered to come to the polls because the NDP could possibly win.   The 2012 social conservatives did vote again for Wildrose.  The 2012 Liberals that voted PC seem to have voted NDP this time as well as some of the people that still voted Liberal in 2012.