Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Victoria by-election - who will the candidates be?

The odds are high that this by-election will happen this fall so how ready are any of the parties for it?

As far as I can tell only among the NDP are there people seriously trying to figure out who the candidate will be.  Many names have been put out there but I think we are most likely looking at the mayor and if Dean Fortin does not run I think it will be Marianne Alto.   That said, there could be outsiders keen to be an MP now that the NDP has a shot at being government in 2015.

I have heard the Greens are actively looking but been turned down by at least one better known local person.  I honestly can not think of anyone local with enough stature to give them a strong bump on election day.  If there was a parachute it could be Adriane Carr.   From what I can tell the Greens are getting the campaign together for whoever is the candidate.

The Conservatives are apparently going after a name that would be known coast to coast.  Beyond that I have no idea of who is interested and might come forward.  I do not think Patrick Hunt will run again.  I do like him and think he would make a good MP.  It also mean one more voice in Ottawa pushing for electoral reform.

The Liberals are the weakest political party on the south island federally with two thirds and one fourth.  The NDP won two and came third in one.  The Greens won one and came fourth in two others.  The Conservatives came second in all three.

Overall total vote for the six island ridings

  1. NDP   146,878
  2. CPC   146,783
  3. Greens 44,246
  4. Libs   30,125
I do not see any evidence of life among the Liberals that would convince me that they could be competitive.  If people do not think the Liberals have a chance it is hard to see how the party can find the sort of candidate they need to have any impact.  Some have suggested David Merner or Paul Summerville, though I think that if Summerville were to run he would return to the NDP.  Neither one has been in Victoria long and both come from Ontario so I do not see them doing all that well here as they will be seen as parachutes.

Overall the sense I am getting is that only the NDP has any real momentum towards getting a serious candidate in place.  Unless something dramatic happens with the Greens or Conservatives the NDP will win.
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