Wednesday, March 11, 2015

As many as 21 seats in BC may be won with less than 1/3 of the vote in October

The polling data for BC is indicating that there are four parties competing for the vote in the coming federal election.   The Greens look like they will achieve between 15% and 20% of the vote and the Liberals look like they will get double the vote they did in 2011.  What this means is that in various places across BC there will be serious four party races and that will lead to people winning with less than one third of the vote.

In total I think as many as half the seats in BC will be won by someone with less than one third of the vote.   One impact of having this many seats won by very low margins means there will be very surprising results.   None of the seats are entirely out of reach for any party.   It would take only a small shift in the vote to win seats for parties that are in theory in fourth.  It also means that

Vancouver Island - 6 of the 7 seats will be tight races, the only race that is not likely to be close is Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands
  • Courtney-Alberni  
  • Cowichan-Malahat-Langford 
  • Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke 
  • Nanaimo-Ladysmith
  • North Island-Comox-Powell River
  • Victoria  
Metro Vancouver - most of the seats that will be close are in the suburbs
  • Burnaby-North Seymour
  • Burnaby South
  • Delta
  • Fleetwood-Port Kells 
  • Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon
  • Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge
  • Port Moody-Coquitlam
  • Richmond Centre
  • South Surrey-White Rock
  • Steveston-Richmond East
  • Surrey Centre
  • Vancouver Kingsway
  • West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country
Interior - given the organizational weakness of the NDP, Liberals and Greens in most of the interior, I do not think more than 2 races will be close.
  • North Okanagan-Shuswap
  • South Okanagan-West Kootenay 
There are a couple of seats that I do not think will be that close and the Liberals will win
  • North Vancouver
  • Surrey Newtown
  • Vancouver Granville
  • Vancouver South

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