Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Some Interesting Polling Links and comments on the by-elections

Both of these sites offer a good overview of all of the polling happening on the federal scene and the general trend of the polls.

Wikipedia has a good page on the next election with polling data.

The big thing will be the election results in the three by-elections to be held on Sept 17th in Quebec.

The Liberals have to win Outremont or they may as well close up shop. If the NDP are going to win a riding, this would be their best chance, but I still give them no hope. I can not see the Bloc winning here, but given the controversy over the Liberal candidate, this could happen here. Since 1935 the riding has been Liberal in every election but one - 1988. Though the 2006 Liberal result was their second worst percent of the popular vote, only slightly better than in 1988. Will the federalists stay home? Will they vote NDP or Conservative? Or will they hold their nose and vote Liberal?

In Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean I wonder if the ADQ effect will push this one in the Conservative camp. The riding was at one time a Crediste seat, and that in my mind is fertile ground for the ADQ types. I believe that the Conservatives have a moderate chance in this riding.

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot is a location where the Conservatives had a higher degree or success in the 1950s to 1980s than elsewhere in Quebec. They have a huge mountain to climb to win it, but they are clearly the ony party that will challenge the Bloc.

There is a remote chance that all three ridings could be won by the Conservatives, if they even win one of them, they have a big victory, but if they win all three, then this is a huge landslide for Harper.

That would take them to 128 seats versus 177 seats in the opposition. If one assumes that two if the indepents will vote with the government, this takes them to 130 seats. They could comfortably govern because the their margin of support in any vote is large enough with any other party that they are very unlikely to lose a vote by accident.

In the fall there should be four more by-elections, one of them looks not bad for the government, two more are long shots and the final one is a write off.

Once all seven by-elections are done, I think we should see the Liberals win three, the Conservatives win three and the BQ one. The new house would be 128 Conservatives, 99 Liberals, 49 BQ, 29 NDP and 3 Ind. Leaving the Conservatives 26 seats short of a majority, better than the 30 they were short on election day. If one includes the two independents, they are only 24 short.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the ink.

As for your prediction for the Outremont by-election, you may be interested in a post I had a while back where I used my polling data and finance data to extrapolate predictable results on the election. The scenarios that I ran did suggest that the NDP is much stronger than many might think (and not only because they've always been able to put up a good fight when they abandon their principles by nominating a right-winger like Mulcair).

Anyway, the post is here if you're interested.