Tuesday, December 7, 2010

My Prediction

Carole James is going to be yesterday's news by next week and will cease to have any influence within the NDP at about the same time.

I also predict that the NDP will comfortably build up the party in the leadership race and unite around the new leader.   There is no potential winner in the race that will not be able to unite the caucus and the party.

The new leader will be one of John Horgan, Adrian Dix, Mike Farnworth or Rob Fleming.   I know that this is an obvious list, but I am trying to be accurate as I have an offer to the public on the bottom of the page.

I predict the NDP will become a much more effective opposition with the new leader - all the front runners know what needs to be done to hold the government to task.

Finally, I predict the NDP will win the next election with a majority and will see an increase in votes for the party.  It is not the election result I would like to see, but I am realistic and short of a dramatic change to the political landscape I do not see the Liberals winning a fourth term.

I make no predictions on how well the NDP may govern should they win.

I happy to have anyone out there wanting to hold me to these predictions.   If I am wrong on any of them, beer is on my at my home in late May 2013.   If I am wrong on all of them, I will host a full BBQ at my home.


cosmicsync said...

Since you're making predictions, here's a wild stab in the dark - Bill and Pamela just announced they're done at the end of December. Christy is going to announce that she's running for Liberal leader on Bill's show tomorrow morning. My wild prediction: Pamela will be on deck to announce afterward that she's taking Christy's spot.

Okay, that's crazy talk. But wouldn't you love to see the look on Mike Smyth's face if that happened.

cosmicsync said...

Well, so much for my Pamela prediction. I'm surprised they went with Smyth, since that spot has traditionally been filled by a woman. I was hoping for Simi Sara, just to give a bit of balance to their talk show line up. Oh well.

I would agree with your predictions on likely candidates for NDP leader. My preference would be either Dix or Franworth. I'm not so sure the next election is a slam dunk for the NDP. If they can demonstrate to the voters that the party is united behind the new leader, they may be able to move past the revolt, but Jenny & Co have given the Liberals a real gift.

Also, the party doesn't have the resources to finance a campaign at this point, and I don't think that is likely to change until a new leader is in place and can demonstrate the party has it together. Who is going to send them money given the current state the party is in?

For the Liberals, my preference for premiere would be Abbott, but since I want a full, independent inquiry in to the sale of BC Rail, the RCMP investigation and the Basi-Virk trial, I hope it's Kevin or Christy. Both are extremely polarizing and I think either of them taking over the leadership of the BC Liberals would greatly enhance the NDP's chances in the next election.

There are still a few wild cards, though. If Falcon is not successful, the BC Conservatives could be a factor, at least in the Valley. And I think a lot of disenfranchised center left voters could give BC First a look, if that party manages to get off the ground.

Also, the new Liberal premiere could amend the fixed election date when the house sits in the spring. If Kevin or Christy or George cancel the HST referendum, hold a free vote in the ledge that results in returning to the PST and move up the election date to maybe autumn of 2011, the NDP will be looking at another four years of opposition no matter who they put in as leader.