Thursday, April 19, 2012

One more data point I forgot to mention

I forgot to add how I made use of the data from the HST referendum last summer.  Yes was to get rid of the HST, no was to keep it.

Riding          Yes        No         Vote Change from 2009
Chilliwack Hope 8991 49.7% 9118 50.3% 18109  +1286
Port Moody-Coq  9677 50.9% 9353 49.1% 19030 -104

So how does one read the vote in the context of the by-election?   One of the problems is that there was no polling in BC from May 13th to September 28th last year so it is hard to measure the relative popularity of the parties at the time with where they are now.   Ultimately it is almost impossible to read much from this data point.

Overall 30,000 fewer people voted in the referendum than in the 2009 general election.  When I look at the higher turn out in Chilliwack-Hope in the referendum, it does say to me that disengaged right wing voters did come out to vote on the HST.  

Ultimately all I took from it is that the BC Liberals are not dead and placing second in both by-elections is a reasonable expectation.

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