Early prediction for the by-elections

Keeping in mind this is before any of the parties have chosen their candidates

Calgary Centre - 100% chance of a Conservative win

1. Conservatives 50%
2. Greens 20%
3. Liberals 15%
4. NDP 15%

Durham - 95% chance of a Conservative win

1. Conservatives  45%
2. NDP 30%
3. Liberals 20%
4. Greens 5%

Etobicoke Centre - there may or may not be a by-election here - 60% chance of a Conservative win

1. Conservatives 40%
2. Liberals 35%
3. NDP 20% 
4. Greens 5% or 0% if they do not run a candidate here, if that happens I see it going CP 41%, Libs 37%, NDP 22%

Victoria - 75% chance of an NDP win

1. NDP 38%
2. Greens 28%
3. Conservatives 24%
4. Liberals 10%

Overall if get to:

1. Conservatives 2.6 seats
2. NDP 0.8 seats
3. Liberals 0.4 seats
4. Greens 0.2 seats