Monday, January 14, 2013

Predicting the 2013 election

Very little has happened over the fall and winter to indicate anything much has changed to move us away from a probable NDP landslide.  At the same time nothing has happened to indicate a total wipe-out for the BC Liberals.

My current estimate of the results of the 2013 election

Party  Seats  range   votes   percentage
NDP      61  (53-67)  750,000  44.1%
Liberals 20  (16-25)  500,000  29.4%
Inds      3   (2-4)    30,000   1.8%
Greens    1   (0-2)   180,000  10.6%
BCCP      0   (0-1)   230,000  13.5%
Others    0   (0-0)    10,000   0.6%

The one seat for the BC Conservatives comes from the aggregate of the odds of their candidates in Okanagan being able to win.

I think the biggest factor in the 2013 election will be the voter turnout.   The research indicates that likely 2,900,000 voters intend to vote in the BC election but that the actual vote will be much lower.   Likely 1,200,000 people will end up not voting that are at the moment planning to vote.

I expect about 125,000 2009 Liberal voters not to vote in 2013.   Though overall I think the vote will be a bit higher than in 2009 because I see more people voting for the BC Conservatives because of they will be running a full slate.  In 2009 there really was no place for serious social conservatives to put their vote and I think many of them stayed home. The BC Greens will be running a number of serious local campaigns, many more than in past elections.   That should be worth close to 50,000 votes for them.    I do not see anything from the NDP that would indicate the party will have much of an impact on the total vote.

The 2009 BC election saw a drop of 122,000 votes from 2005 BC election and a significant dip of 153,000 from the 2008 federal election.   2009 was a very low turnout in BC and I think was primarily because of weak campaigns by the three largest parties .   I am not certain what the turn out will be for May, but I do not see many more total voters than in 2009.

Realistically the probable upper limit on voters is 1,900,000 - a bit more than the 2011 federal election in BC.   This is 200,000 more than my current assumption of how many people will vote.    What will it take for these people to vote?   I think the people need a good reason to come out and vote.  There is a large enough group of people looking for a reason to vote that if a serious party does manage to engage with them there could be a dramatic result in the election.  

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