Thursday, April 30, 2015

My Bold Alberta Election Prediction - a comfortable NDP majority government

I am going out on a limb here but I think the NDP will win 60 seats

Party  Seats Vote
NDP      64   42%
Wildrose 19   26%
PC        3   22%
Liberals  0    5% 
Alberta   1    2%
Other     0    1%

Why do I think this will happen?

  • There is a clear trend in the polls showing the NDP in the lead and not only in the lead but with a large margin over the second place party
  • The NDP campaign has been positive and has inspired people to get involved
  • Rachel Notley very clearly won the debate and looks like more of a premier than Jim Prentice
  • The Wildrose campaign has been bland and wooden with an acceptable but uninspiring leader
  • The PC campaign has gone from bad to train wreck  
  • The Liberals are a non event in the election and will lose most of their vote to the NDP
  • In 2012 roughly 230,000 people that would have normally voted NDP or Liberal voted for the PCs at the last minute for them to stop the Wildrose Party, this will not happen this time.

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