Monday, June 23, 2008

Latest BC Polling Numbers

Both Mustel and Ipsos have the BC Liberals around 48% and the NDP at around 32%. The Greens remain well established at about 16%.

The one interesting fact out of the latest Ipsos poll is the break down of how that support works out in the Lower Mainland - a huge Liberal lead - and the rest of the province.

Ipsos has the Liberals at 40% outside of the lower mainland and the NDP at 35%. This leaves one in four people outside of the lower mainland not wanting either party. While they did not state the Green support, it looks like it should be in the 20% range versus closer to 10% in the lower mainland.

What this could mean is that the Green support is regionalizing and concentrating. This sort of a shift means that there is a much higher chance that the Greens will be able to elect some MLAs in the next election.

In general the numbers for Ipsos and Mustel point to a huge Liberal win in 2009. The NDP remains in danger of losing the majority of the seats they hold at the moment. Certainly they do not look good from retaining Gregor Robinson's Vancouver seat in the up coming by-election.

While a lot of people are really pissed off about the carbon tax, I suspect the NDP's opposition is going to hurt the party as it looks like the crassest of political moves and makes Carole James look like the queen of cynical politics. The NDP certainly has made itself the brownest party in BC at this time.
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