Thursday, July 31, 2008

Federal By-Elections

We now have three by-elections called for September 8th.

Westmount-Ville-Marie
This one is one the Liberals have to win, no they have to win in a landslide. Marc Garneau is running for Dion in this riding and anything less than that is a nail in his coffin. If the Liberals come as close as they did in Vancouver to losing in the by-election I would look to the Liberals replacing Dion before the year is out.


Saint Lambert


This should be an easy win by the BQ, but I would not count out the Conservatives. Everything depends on who can pull in the federalist vote. Patrick Clune is a know quantity for the Conservatives and did well in 2006. The area is one that was all PC under Mulroney. If Harper wins in this one, Dion is in trouble and there is no danger of a federal election till October of 2009.

Guelph

This could be an interesting three way race. The NDP have managed to get a star candidate in Tom King, he of the Dead Dog Cafe comedy on CBC radio. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have nominated strong candidates.

If I were to predict who will win, I would say Gloria Kovacs of the Conservative is the most likely, followed by Tom King and finally Frank Valeriote of the Liberals.

Overall

All three ridings should be easy wins for the Liberals, the most likely result is one Liberal and two Conservatives. That result would almost certainly push the federal Liberal party into a feeding frenzy and they will eat their young and destroy themselves.

The NDP has an outside chance of a seat and the BQ has not bad odds to win one. In any case it is unlikely that the Liberals will be able to win more than one. Dion will be going back into the house in the fall with 96 MPs, this is down seven from the election. Odds are we will see a house in the fall with 128 Conservatives (+4), 96 Liberals (-7), 49 BQ(-2), 30 NDP(+1) and 4 Ind (+3).

We all can only hope that a bad showing by the Liberals will throw the party into turmoil and hasten a total collapse. Canada needs to see an end to the Liberal party federally as quickly as possible. Only the Conservatives and the NDP are capable of governing in the interests of Canadians nationally and not in the interest of personal political gain as the Liberals seem to have always done.
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