Thursday, September 11, 2008

Seat Projections from the UBC ESM

The current numbers from the UBC Election Stockmarket suggest the following outcome:

  • Conservatives 144
  • Liberals 85
  • NDP 46
  • Bloc 34
  • Others 3

Yes, this adds up to more than 308 seats, but that is the nature of the market from time to time, people are over estimating when they buy and under estimating when they sell. What this says to me is that one of the parties is going down and it has not yet hit the market.

The market has often underestimated the Bloc seats in past elections. To me the Bloc numbers look accurate this time, well at least for the moment. I think the error in the past comes from most of us involved in the market are anglos from the west and a lot of people out here simply do not understand the Bloc.

The NDP vote looks high, but the market is often better at predicting changes in the elections earlier than any other source. Layton may really be on the rise.

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