Friday, September 12, 2008

Some Quick Polling Analysis

Over the last eight days we have 9 national polls to work with and here are how the numbers are shaping up:

  • Conservatives - ave 38.3% median 38%
  • Liberals - ave 26.9% median 26%
  • NDP - ave 16.1% -1.4 median 15%
  • Bloc - ave 8.1% median 9%
  • Greens - ave 9.0% median 9%
This puts the Greens at double their support from 2006. The Conservatives are up a healthy 2 percentage points while the Liberals are down 3.3 percentage points from 2006.

The Bloc numbers have been a bit more over the map, but seem to indicate that their vote is down by 25%.

The NDP have also been jumping around in the polls from a low of 13% to a high of 21%. At the moment they are polling down from the 2006 result by 1.4 percentage points. This is possibly a bigger problem for them as they have been polling a lot higher in Quebec and therefore is lower in the rest of the country.
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