Monday, December 1, 2008

House of Commons numbers - some more

There are 23 MPs currently over the age of 65 in the House of Commons. The oldest caucus is the Bloc with 9 MPs over age 65. When one looks at the statistics, the odds of an MP dieing in the next year is high, realistically two could die.

When one looks at the MPs in Ottawa, the odds are the MP that dies will not be a Conservative. the odds are 40% that it is Conservative and 60% that it is not.

Death is not the only issue, critical illness is also an issue. The odds are that about 15 MPs will have a critical illness and be effected badly enough to reduce the time they can be in parliament. The split is 6 Conservatives and 9 Lib/NDP/Bloc.

If you apply this to the standings in the house, here is where you end up:

  • Conservatives - 137
  • Lib/NDP/Bloc - 152
  • Ind - 2
The voting margin narrows against the coalition.

Then one looks at the MPs who have been serving for at least 15 years. There are 19 Liberals, 10 Bloc and 9 Conservatives that have served more than 15 years. The odds of these MPs resigning is higher than the rest. Fully one quarter of the Liberals have been in the House for more than 15 years, six of them more than 20 years.

I expect the Liberals to keep most of their MPs and maybe lose only 2 to retirement. It is with the Bloc that I expect to see a lot more retire, five within the next year. I see one Conservative resigning.

Apply this to the above numbers and this is how it looks:
  • Conservatives - 136
  • Bloc/Lib/NDP - 141
  • Ind - 1
Statistically and demographically the numbers are running against the Lib/NDP coalition. Governing with a two parties and depending on a third party to stay in power against a solid single party opposition will be very hard.
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