Friday, December 5, 2008

New Polls on Voter Federal Vote Intention

Ipsos, Ekos, Leger and Strategic Counsel have all released polls of voter intention. The results show a significant shift in where people are at in some parts of the country.

Nationally the results of all the polling is as follows with the + or - from the election

  • Conservatives 43.7% +6.0
  • Liberals 24.2% -2.1
  • NDP 14.8% -3.4
  • Greens 7.9% +1.1
  • Bloc 9.4% -0.6

The Green support is higher than is likely in an election because people seem to be willing to say Green in polls and then either vote differently or do not vote.

The boost for the Conservatives is dramatic and significant and seems to be drawing in equal numbers from the NDP and the Liberals.

The Liberals seem to be down one in ten voters and the NDP is down almost one in five.

In Quebec the polling results almost mirror the last election. The Conservatives and NDP are marginally down and theBloc and Liberals marginally up, but in general very little change.

The results in Ontario show a dramatic change, the most dramatic in the country. Ontario also has the most reliable regional results.

  • Conservatives - 49.5% +10.3
  • Liberals - 27.5% -6.3
  • NDP - 13.6% -4.6
  • Green - 9.4% +1.4
With these sort of numbers, the Conservatives are into Ontario landslide numbers. The more than 20 point gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives means everything that is not hardcore Liberal is under serious threat to being won by the Conservatives. Winning 30 to 40 more seats in Ontario is well within the realm of realistic for Stephen Harper.

In the west the polling numbers show the Conservatives up consistently in all provinces with the NDP taking the hit and the Liberals holding their ground. In an election I see the Conservatives taking thee seats from the Liberals and six from the NDP.

Atlantic Canada has the thinest set of numbers out there in the polls so my confidence in them is not very strong. The trend shows the Conservatives up, Liberals even and the NDP down.

If these numbers were to hold in a federal election we would see a house that looks something like this:

  • Conservatives - 183
  • Liberals - 56
  • Bloc - 49
  • NDP - 18
  • Ind - 2

Basically an election now would result in a comfortable majority for the Conservatives, leave the Bloc where it is and see the NDP and Liberals lose about an equal number of seats.
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