Election preditions on October

Based on more polling data and information on individual ridings, here is where I see things at the moment.

Party	BC	AB	SK	MN	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NF	Nt
CPC	25	28	13	10	57	14	6	5	2	2	2	164
LPC	2			2	31	6	3	3	2	4	1	54
NDP	11		1	2	18	2	1	2		1		38
Bloc						52						52
Ind						1		1				2
GP

One thing that happens in every election is that almost everyone over estimates the power of incumbency - it is a factor but only a measurable difference in your first election as an incumbent for the party.

Another things that happens is that most people assume one election will look like the next. That someone that polled at 10% in a riding can not win, that someone that won by more than 10% over the number two party can not lose. These are constantly shown to be false in Canadian elections. These two assumptions lead to people making significant errors in how many seats parties will win in an election.

How do I think the election will end? I still believe we will see a large Conservative majority. Harper will be able to build a larger majority than Chretien did in 1997 with the same popular vote because the main opposition party in this election is their support much more dispersed. Preston Manning of the Reform party had his vote concentrated in one region, much as the Bloc has their vote only in region. The Liberal party is all over the country. This means the Liberals are on course to lose a lot more seats than anyone expects in this election.

Another way to measure the relative support level of the parties is to look at the election as if the Green Party vote simply did not exist. If we do this, the Conservative party has about 41% of the vote in the election and the Liberals about 27.5% and the NDP 21%. Looking at the election as a three party race to win seats outside of Quebec means the Conservatives are comfortably into majority government territory.

Another factor to consider in the election is the impact of voter turn out. The supporters of the Conservatives are the most likely to come out and vote, next highest are the core New Democrats and the core Bloc voters. The Liberals have a much lower level of core do or die supporters. The Green vote on election day is very, very hard to estimate because their supporters are young and not nearly as attached to the party or voting as the others.

I see the impact of turnout being a negative for the Liberals and Greens and a benefit for the other parties. Based on that, I am estimating the final election day support for the parties to be:

• Conservatives - 39.0%
• Liberals - 23.1%
• NDP - 20.7%
• Bloc - 9.8%
• Greens - 7.4%

Taking these numbers across the nation we get the following result:

Party	BC	AB	SK	MN	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NF	Nt
CPC	26	27	12	10	66	12	6	6	2	2	2	171
LPC				1	20	6	3	3	2	4	1	40
NDP	12	1	2	3	20	3	1	2		1		45
Bloc						53						53
Ind						1						1
GP

The biggest change from my first prediction for October 14th has been the revival of the Bloc. I now believe they are the party most likely to for the official opposition in Ottawa.

I am now comfortable in predicting a shut out for the Liberals in BC and the higher number of Conservative seats in the Maritimes.

I keep putting my numbers for Ontario through various algorithms and keep coming up with large Conservative numbers - I am at odds with most other people on this and I am not sure what to do about this. I put it down to basis in favour of the previous election results. The Liberals are down a long way in Ontario, the math just keeps pointing towards a lot of loses for them.

Leader's Debate

Pointless and irrelevant.

No one did badly enough to suffer, no one did well enough to matter. That means in Canada and the US.

John Horgan the next leader of the BC NDP?

The more I see of John Horgan, the more I am impressed with him. I still disagree with the NDP approach on most issues and think their anti-carbon tax campaign is a huge political mistake for them.

John Horgan has shown he has a strong set of skills as an MLA.

He is a good retail politician, his constituents know him and like him. The NDP is weak on this aspect at the moment as very few of their MLAs are good at that hand shaking thing and meaning it. Of the five lower island NDP MLAs he is clearly the best liked as a person.

He has shown himself to be a strong advocate for his constituency. The NDP has some MLAs that may become good at this down the road, but most of them still seem to be figuring out what it is they can really do as an opposition MLA. Some are clearly retiring after only one term because they seem to be at a loss about why they are there. John Horgan was up and running in 2005.

John is at ease in front of crowd, he can speak in front of a camera and come off relaxed and comfortable. This is not a skill most people can learn, look at Stephen Harper, he will never be relaxed and comfortable in front of any group of people.

In the turmoil and shotgun approach of the NDP opposition to the Liberals, he has been one of the few MLAs that has been able to really score points on a consistent basis. He knows how to play the game of politics.

After the next election when the NDP will be badly defeated by the Liberals - the few polls at the end of the summer indicating something close to a tie are not realistic in my opinion - the party will be looking to get rid of Carole James. Once she has resigned a leadership race will begin. The people I see in the race are:

• Rob Flemming
• Gregor Robertson
• John Horgan
• Adrian Dix
• Bob Simpson
• Bruce Ralston

I do not see any obvious women that would be running for the leadership in 2010/11. I am looking around at who there might be but honestly can not see any woman out there with a serious ambition to make a run for it. I think this is a serious problem that there seems to be no woman in the wings ready to be leader or make a serious run for leader. Any party that does not have a serious woman contender for the top job at this point has a serious problem they need to address.

Best I can come with would be Andrea Reimer, but she is still too young and without experience as an MLA or MP, or Dawn Black and she is 65 now. The other NDP women MPs and MLAs do not seem to have any indication of an ambition to be leader.

I did not include Mike Farnworth because I am not convinced he will make a run for the job.

John Horgan strikes me as by far the strongest person out there for the party. He has the sort of presence that would give the NDP a serious chance at winning the election in 2013 or 2017. Much of course depends on who the next Liberal leader is and if the Liberals retain their position as the only party to the right of the NDP.

Immigrants and Canadian Politics

I have been looking back into Canadian history and I think Elizabeth May of the Greens is the first leader of a major national party in Canada that is an immigrant.

It is interesting that as a nation of immigrants we have never had a major party leader that was an immigrant. Not only is Elizabeth May a break through for the Green party, she is a break through for immigrants to Canada.

We have had many immigrant MPs over the years, and representation of immigrants in the parliament has been good over the last number of elections but there is something of a glass ceiling for immigrants in holding the top offices in the country.

Yes, we have two immigrants as Governor General - but it is a ceremonial post appointed by the government.

BC has had two immigrant permiers in the last generation, but they seem to be the exception when one looks at other provinces. BC was also the first province in Canada to elect a permier that was not a Christian - Dave Barrett is Jewish.

I am curious why immigrants are not getting into the leadership in this nation? The last Liberal Leadership race had two candidates run that were born in Italy, Joe Volpe who killed his slim chances with the air of coruption to his campaign, and Maurizio Bevilacqua who pulled out when he saw his chances of winning were very low.

I am not including people as immigrants that came from the UK during the Imperial Era of Canada - anyone coming here before 1945. This includes the following people:

Conservatives:
John A MacDonald - born in Scotland came to Canada at age 5
Mackenzie Bowell - born in England came to Canada at age 8

Liberals
George Brown - born in Scotland came to Canada at age 25
Alexander MacKenzie - born in Scotland came to Canada at age 20

CCF
MJ Coldwell - born in England came to Canada at age 22
Tommy Douglas - born in Scotland came to Canada at age 6

The Review of the Game in La Belle Province

Last night we had the first game of the leader ball game series and fittingly it was in the home province of baseball in Canada, Quebec.

I tried to watch some of the debate in French. My second oldest son is in late French Immersion now and I am have amazed myself at how much better my French has become. Even Catherine, my ex wife who did a degree in French, has commented at the improvement. Maybe the idea of functionally fluency is not crazy after all. Anyway, I tried catch the debate in French and I managed to get the gist of it what was going on. Watching it without translation helped me get a feeling for how the leaders were in French. I ended up catching more of the debate in transcript and English translation.

So how did they do? They did about as well as I expected them to do, there was nothing surprising happening.

1) Elizabeth May - she had a couple of times at bat, got a walk and some strike outs. She looked like she belonged in the major league, but she did not do anything well enough or badly enough to know if she will stick in the majors. This where I say I am impressed an immigrant has managed to learn to speak French as well as she does. She needs to get a strong hit tonight in the English game to have a chance of staying the majors, I would say she needs a double or better at least once in the game to avoid going back to playing Triple A ball.

2) Gilles Duceppe - he is still a hockey player that could care less about any baseball game. Honestly, why is he bothering to come to the game at all? The Bloc clearly pointed out to everyone last night that their role on the federal level is irrelevant. Giles, in many ways the most engaging and charismatic leader we have seen federally over the last four elections, should take over the PQ in Quebec and bring them into power there.

He will be there for the English game, but I expect him to mess around and not take any of it seriously.

3) Jack Layton - he came up to the plate hoping to show that he was more than a journeyman. He still sounds like an anglo speaking French. He had some nice swings but did not connect with the ball well. One time at bat the crack of the wood sounded strong but with in a moment is was clear it was pop up to left field that was fielded with ease. Best he did on the night was a single but he was left stranded on the base and did not get anyone home with it. If he does the same again tonight I think that there is a good chance the NDP will finish second for the season.

4) Stephen Harper - cool, calm and collected. He knew he needed some runs for his team, he knew that the game was too important for risky anything on something flashy. Three times up at the plate, three times on base. One walk and two competent singles. Nothing for the headlines, but certainly has given his team a much better chance of winning the game.

5) Stephane Dion - why is a curler playing baseball? So many pundits were lowering the expectations of him in the game because he is curler and not a baseball player. The question has to be why is he choosing to play in a baseball game? He was not awful at bat, but he did not reach first base once. His at bats gave nothing for his team. Three strike outs and only once that the wood and ball touched for a foul ball into stands out along the 3rd base line.

The musings on the Liberal Team management is that he needs to be cut from the team. Not just a stint in the minors, but rip up the contract and pay him out. We have seen retired Liberal players being called on to help the team in his place. Paul Martin to be back on the team? He is long past his playing prime and showed everyone just how had weaked as player in the 2004 and 2006 campaigns.

Dion has one last chance tonight to hit a homerun. He really needs it the first time he is at bat and he needs to hit it with a power that is convincing. But who are we kidding, he is a curler and everyone will be amazed if he manages a single.

The odd results of elections in Canada

Our election is once again going to have some bizarre and crazy results because voters in Canada do not have an equal voice at the ballot box. Some voters get voices that are three to four times as loud as others.

Let us start with the simple fact that the the third place finisher in every riding on Vancouver Island in 2006 got more votes than the most popular MP from PEI. In what world can it make sense for someone to be a more popular choice than anyone in a PEI and come third???? We have a system where every voter in PEI gets almost four votes for everyone we get on Vancouver Island.

The people that lost on Vancouver Island often got more votes than the people elected as MPs in the rest of the country. We have third place finishers on Vancouver Island that would have won with that number of votes in every province of the country. The voters on Vancouver Island simply are denied a reasonable voice in Ottawa.

How does it make sense that Terence Young could get 25148 votes in Oakville and lose? He got more votes than most of the MPs elected but he is not elected.

There are Greens in the last 2 elections that did better at the polls than people elected as MPs. How is it fair the party has no elected MPs even though their candidates are more popular than people that got elected? David Chernushenko in Ottawa Centre and Shane Jolley in Bruce - Grey - Owen Sound got more votes than three MPs that were elected. In 2004 Andrew Lewis in Saanich Gulf Islands got more votes than 12 MPs that were elected.

I defy any to explain how it is fair for people to go into the election and achieve a better result than other people running and lose - to come fourth in some cases.

Why can we not have some sort of equity in this country?

How can anyone serve as an MP in Ottawa knowing they have less of a mandate than people who did not get elected, that their mandate to serve is smaller than people who came fourth in some places?

What moral right is there for people to be given a smaller voice in Ottawa than others?

If we had STV federally, everyone elected would be elected with a mandate of almost indentical size.

If we are to keep the current system, we need to agree to how many people there should be in a riding and stick to that number across the nation. No more devaluing people because they choose to live in Victoria instead of Charlottetown.

Fair Vote Canada October 2008 Newsletter

October 2008 / Octobre 2008

For the latest news on voting system reform, visit www.fairvote.ca.

Pour les dernières informations sur la réforme du système électoral, visitez le site Internet www.fairvote.ca/fr .

In this issue

• Election 2008: let’s keep the pressure on - we need volunteers and donations!
• OprhanVoters.ca and the Great Democracy Disaster Contest
• FVC calls on Harper and Dion to support democratic voting
• Dion muffs his pitch to 7.5 million orphan voters
• Cincinnati, Ohio, will vote on STV

Election 2008: let’s keep the pressure on – we need volunteers and donations!

Some pundits and politicians just want us to go away, but the topic of electoral reform keeps bubbling up. The media coverage of vote-swapping and strategic voting initiatives is sparking extensive discussion of the core problem: the dysfunctional first-past-the-post system. We need to keep that discussion alive and growing, because the post-election environment may provide an opening for a federal electoral reform process.

If you can volunteer even a few hours between now and election day, contact us immediately! Check out our election campaign action page. Please download our campaign flyer: Why Don’t Politicians Listen? Photocopy a few dozen or a few hundred, and pass them around to friends and contacts. Those members and supporters in regions with an FVC chapter can also pick up the full-colour printed version from your chapter’s volunteer coordinator.

We need volunteers sending letters to the editor and posting to online forums and blogs, and people who can attend all-candidate meetings to hand out leaflets and ask questions. Use this form to volunteer.

Even if you can’t volunteer, a small donation can make a big difference. Every dollar counts in the fight to make every vote count.

OrphanVoters.ca and the Great Democracy Disaster Contest

Have you visited our special campaign site: OrphanVoters.ca and forwarded the link to your friends and contacts? If not, please do so today.

New: on the Taking Action page you can now download animated OrphanVoters.ca banners to put on your website or blog. Plus, sign up for the Orphan Voters of Canada and the Fair Vote Canada groups on Facebook.

Also, be sure to enter the Great Democracy Disaster Contest. We have cash prizes for those making the best predictions on the number of orphan voters, by province and nationally, that will be created by the October 14 election.

FVC calls on Harper and Dion to endorse democratic voting

On September 28, Fair Vote Canada issued an open letter to Stephen Harper and Stéphane Dion.

Dear Mr. Harper and Mr. Dion:

On behalf of all Canadians who want to believe in democracy, allow me to express my enormous frustration with this election campaign. The leaders of our two largest political parties are acting more like fear mongers than true leaders.

Stéphane Dion, you say Canadians must vote for the Liberal Party, or Stephen Harper, with a phony majority government, will ruin Canada as we know it. Stephen Harper, you say Canadians must vote for the Conservative Party, or Stéphane Dion as head of a phony majority Liberal government will ruin Canada as we know it.

Is Canada truly in such terrible danger, or are both of you simply avoiding the core question that any Canadian would ask: ‘Why should a leader and party without true majority voter support be allowed to seize command of Parliament and impose law and policy on all Canadians?’

[Complete text available here.]

Dion muffs his pitch to 7.5 million orphan voters

Stéphane Dion, trailing badly in election opinion polls, muffed a chance to woo 7.5 million orphan voters on CBC’s Cross Country Checkup on September 28.

The Liberal leader dodged a caller who asked for his position on election reform and proportional representation. Instead he touted another winner-take-all voting system which would continue to shut out all small-party voters and elect many more Liberals. [See FVC press release.]

Cincinnati to vote on STV system

In addition to voting for the President on November 4, voters in Cincinnati, Ohio, will decide whether to adopt the single transferable vote (STV) system for use in future municipal elections. The Cincinnati chapter of the NAACP, the largest American civil rights organization, collected the necessary signatures to put the issue on the ballot.

Cincinnati used STV from 1925 to 1955, which led to the election of the first racially mixed city councils. Unfortunately, backlash to the growth of American civil rights movement in the 1950s led to a referendum to bring back winner-take-all voting. If Cincinnati adopts STV, it will become the first major city in the US to do so in modern times. An STV win in Cincinnati would also provide a tremendous boost for the STV campaign in British Columbia.

Why this election is depressing me

The federal election in Canada is depressing me because of how the left is acting in the election.

I have never seen a campaign from the left side of the spectrum that is so negative and alarmist. I do not mean the Jack Layton NDP campaign as I do think he is doing a great job in the campaign and focusing more on why the NDP should be the home for your vote than every before. The left I mean at the activists, the environmental groups, the university educated chattering classes and the rest of that ilk.

There is a very strong push for strategic voting to defeat the Conservatives. It is unethical and unprincipled to actively advocate that people strategically vote. The people pushing these campaigns focusing on opposition to a Conservative government feast on public fear and worry. They move out of talking about ideas and visions for a future and into a realm where the only issue in politics that matters is being in power and doing so without an agenda.

I see this as a continuation of a stronger and stronger authoritarian streak in the left in Canada. Many on the left in Canada have abandoned the ideals of democracy, free speech, and equality of people.

In an election I expect to have parties decry the leaders of the other parties, but the attacks on Harper are in a realm that we have rarely seen in Canada. The attacks are less and less about his skills and more about personal issues. Harper is made out to be a bully or controlling, but this is done without evidence and without comparing him to Chretien or Martin before him. It is like people on the left want people to hate Stephen Harper, and that is a disservice to all Canadians. Harper, like Dion, May and Layton, has a passion to make Canada a better country. He is not evil, he is not the devil.

Yes, I know there are those of you out there that will point other leaders have been reviled, but normally that has been because they are at the end of their time as PM and managed to make some serious blunders along the way. Trudeau was hated in the west because of the National Energy Policy that led to people's lives being financially ruined. I did not like the Conservatives attack ads about Dion, but they focused on his potential skills as Prime Minister and not anything personal.

I also see in the left a stronger and stronger hatred of Jews. People say they do not hate Jews they hate the state of Israel. That statement reminds of Evangelical Christians saying about gays they hate the sin but love the sinner. I can dislike and disagree with a government in Israel, but I am not about say they are fundamentally evil as a nation.

Israel is imperfect as a state, but given the fact the country is surrounded by anti-semitic fascists seeking to exterminate them, one has to wonder how they have managed to survive as a democracy with free speech. Israel is not the reason there is no peace. The Palestinians need to give their head a shake and finally accept the fact Israel is there and the Jews are not leaving. Where are the leaders in the Arab world condemning the attacks on Jews? Where are the Mullahs that need to tell people that killing Jews will put people in hell and not heaven?

But in Canada there is a very strong movement that sees Israel as the problem and the fascists as the heroes? In the same way, why does the left in Canada like the proto-fascist in Venezuela?

Getting back to the election, I see this trend in the left that really would like to see a permanent government, without reference to the public, of their view of the left. A government brought about not because of the public being in favour of what they want, but brought about because of fear and a loathing of the 'other'.

The Leaders Debate

I am going to use a baseball analogy for the English language leaders debate.

What we are all looking for is to see someone hit a home run in the debate, what we normally get are strikeouts, walks and singles. A good walk or single gets you an RBI and those are more important for your team than any personal glory of a home run.

Elizabeth May is the young rookie that is being allowed to try out in the majors and see if she can stick or if hse is back on the next bus to Peoria. She can survive a strikeout in the debate if she looks strong in her swings, though she really needs at least a single to have any chance of sticking in the majors. She has the danger of choking when faced with being in the major league lights. Anything better than a single and she will be star of the night and will likely get a permanent contract in the majors.

Gilles Duceppe is not a baseball player, he wants to be playing hockey but has enough hubris to show up and play ball. Frankly if I were him I would blow off the baseball game because it is a stupid sport and does nothing for him. His team is not even in the league. No one cares how he does when he is at bat as he will already won or lost the hockey game the night before. In the event that he can hit a homer in a game he does not play in, this will not mean he will be a major leaguer, it just means the other batters will be seen as useless.

Jack Layton has had a good couple of weeks of play lately and is coming into the game with some higher expectations that usual. He needs to come up with a stong single to at least to maintain his batting average and help with the team score. A double or triple would mean he would boost his RBIs past Dion and be second in the stats. A home run from Jack would redefine the league, the problem is that Jack has a history of being a journeyman player and really has no history of hitting anything out of the park. His dream is that he will get that home run and be seen as one of the top stars in the league. His dream may push him to over reach and to strike out badly in front of the crowds. No hit from Jack means he will retiring in a few months from active play.

Stephen Harper has a strong batting average and is a man that plays the stats and not for the crowd. He is going to seek a single or double that will boost the team score. He is not a crowd pleaser and will not even try to get that home run. If he gets a strikeout all he does is revive the pennant race again for a few more days.

Stephane Dion - the best curler to ever try to play major league ball. This is a guy that could win the gold in curling but has chosen to play baseball. He is clearly without any ball game strengths. Lately he has been saying the reason his team's season has been so bad is because the umps have been against him - the classic sign of a player and team that are in much deeper trouble than they know.

Dion needs a home run. Anything less than a home run and his team finishes behind Jakc Layton's team. A home run would revive his team's chances of a run at the pennant again in a future season. But Dion in no Sammy Sosa, he is a curler that has a batting average of something like .145. Dion has never managed a single, let alone a home run in major league play. We are talking miracle time for Dion.

Dion may be coming into the baseball game injured by Harper and Duceppe in the hockey game the night before. He may barely be able to lift the bat. He only has one play that he can make that would avoid his team coming in last place - he needs to step into the pitch and get hit to get to first base.

Another Possible Green MP

In of all places, Nunavut. Seems Elizabeth May has recruited for MP Peter Ittinuar to run in the riding he represented from 1979 to 1984.

In the north, elections are different than down in the south, the voting base is much smaller and the people know each other much better. The person matters a lot more up there than anywhere else in Canada.

Can Peter win? I have no idea, but this is a race I will be watching on election night once I am done watching the votes being counted at my polling place - I am a poll captain this election again.