Saturday, February 11, 2012

My Current Estimate of a BC Election

We are still more than a year away from an election but here is my current estimate of what I think the election will look like:

  • Party  total votes  percentage   Seats 
  • NDP      780,000      42.7%       51
  • Liberals 600,000      32.9%       29
  • Cons     300,000      16.4%        3
  • Greens   115,000       6.3%        0
  • Ind       20,000       1.1%        2
  • Others    10,000       0.5%        0
  • Total  1,825,000

There is a broad range in these numbers and I have no idea what is coming in the world of BC politics that could change this.  For the moment this is what I am going with.

I think the NDP will win, but I do not think a landslide is on the cards.  Nothing like 1972 or 1991 when the NDP won with a landslide.   I do think this election will mark the highest percentage of the vote the NDP has achieved when it has won the election.   The NDP achieved 39.59% in 1972, 40.71% in 1991 and 39.45% in 1996.

The quirks of our electoral system has meant that the NDP has been more popular when it lost - 45.99% in 1979, 44.94% in 1983, 42.60% in 1986, 41.52% in 2005 and 42.06% in 2009.

I can not find anything that shows me the party is any more popular that it has been in the last couple of elections and what data I can glean from the polls shows the party seems to be gaining support in the areas it has already been winning in.  Specifically the NDP seems to be gaining on Vancouver Island, a place they really do not need a lot more support.

I see the NDP's 90,000 vote increase coming as follows - 50,000 2009 non-voters, 25,000 2009 BC Liberal voters, and 15,000 2009 BC Green voters.

The BC Liberals have lost supporters to the BC Conservatives, but I think on election day the bigger impact will be the Liberals that decide to stay home and not vote.   They are 150,000 votes lower than in 2009.   50,000 I assigned to the Conservatives, 25,000 to the NDP and 75,000 to non-voters.

Can the BC Liberals recover?   I think it is not impossible if the premier switches to a positive campaign to convince centrist voters in BC to vote.    There are a lot of people that did not vote in 2009 that are at heart Liberals.   If only one in three of the people that intended to vote in 2009 but changed their mind on election day did actually vote in  the next election for the Liberals, that is enough to make the election a dead heat.   I am assuming 1,825,000 people will vote, but there will be something like 2,800,000 people that will be intending to vote in 2013.   There are more than enough votes there for a well done positive campaign to allow for a serious increase in the vote.   I see Christy Clark as likely the politician with the most likability in a long time to get people to vote if she gives them a reason to come out and vote.

Though, given the approach by the Liberals to date to focus on convincing NDP and Conservative voters not to vote in the next election, I currently do not think that Christy Clark will be able to get any large number of non-voters in 2009 to come out and vote for her party.

Most of the support for the BC Conservatives is coming from non-voters in 2009, a total of 215,000.   The polling data I can glean is not very positive for the BC Conservatives winning a lot of seats.   They do not seem to be building a core of enough support in any region that I would expect them to start winning a lot of seats.   If I was seeing data that showed the BC Conservatives running at well over 20% in the interior, then I would expect them to start winning seats.   The three seats I see them winning are Peace River North, Chilliwack, and Chilliwack Hope.

I see nothing that indicates to me that either Vicki Huntingdon or Bob Simpson will be defeated in the general election.   Delta South is simply not on the radar for the NDP and the Liberals are unlikely to do as well as in 2009.   Meanwhile Bob Simpson has done a very good job of building a following in his neck of the woods.   I can not see the NDP, Liberals or Conservatives taking much of the vote.

As to the others, the host of minor parties like BC Refederation, BC First and the 7-12 parties, 10,000 votes is all I see.  Since none of them seem to actually be doing any active prep for the election, I am assuming their combined vote will not change from 2009.   If they were smart, they would be spending every penny they have on the two coming by-elections and building campaign teams of 250 to 500 people, but they are not doing this.


ron wilton said...

True Liberals will not vote for the current ruling party which is about as far away from Liberal values as one could possibly imagine.

Since there is no place to place a truly Liberal vote, the NDP will benefit hugely from that new awareness.

I voted Liberal in the last three elections because I believed the lies and was not aware of all the deceit.

I will be voting NDP and encouraging all of my truly Liberal friends to do the same.

The present government needs to be punished for their deceit.

If a 'true' Liberal party were to emerge, then that would be a game changer.

Bernard said...

Last time I checked, the BC Liberal party has few major policy differences from the federal Liberal party.

The differences I see, the BC Liberals are a much greener party than the federal one.

The BC Liberals are willing to work with First Nations and the federal Liberal party were the authors of the 1969 White Paper which called for assimilation.

Gordon Campbell was for same sex marriage when Paul Martin was voting against because of his Catholic values.

The Federal Liberal party has long pushed the HST and still supports it as a good policy in all of Canada.

However you want to look at it, the BC Liberals are a liberal party and no amount of hating the party changes the ideology of the party.

ron wilton said...

That's very humorous BS(?), but you are apparently living in some questionable past, whereas most of us are concerned about the future of this province.

Bernard said...

I take it then you at least agree with my point that the BC Liberals and federal Liberals are politically more or less in complete ideological alignment.

The BC Liberals have never been anything different than they are now, the only change is the leader. You vote for them for three elections and you are surprised that they govern like they are a Liberal party?

ron wilton said...

BS(?), I would encourage you to familiarize yourself with what Liberals and liberals idealize in a democracy.

How disingenuous of you to equate the BC Liberal's to federal Liberals when the BC Liberals are so clearly aligned with the Harper ideology.

I vote Liberal federally because it is a centrist party that tries to accommodate and respect a broad range of individual perspectives without demanding fierce loyalty to a leader.

I probably voted Liberal provincially because of my centrist viewpoint, but in fairness I was voting originally to defeat the NDP whom I considered to be petty and punitive.

I will vote now to defeat the "Liberal in name only' party at my earliest opportunity, and that is the voting sector that will skew the 'BC Iconoclast's' prediction.

Bernard said...

Give me one example of a major policy difference between the BC Liberals and the federal Liberals where the federal one is to the progressive or left side of the provincial party.

I have been asking people this question for years and no one has a single substantive example

ron wilton said...

Perhaps you have not heard 'a single and substantive answer' because you are not a good listener.

The internet abounds with the examples you purport to seek, but some caterpillars never learn to fly.

I would suggest you extricate yourself from the coccoon you find yourself in and spread your wings a little.

Even Rip Van Winkle saw things differently when he 'woke' from his self induced slumber.

Bernard said...

So try and provide one, give me one substantive policy difference. Do that I and I will shut up about this