The Bloc Quebecois is a legitimately elected parliamentary party in Ottawa. There is nothing treasonous or fundamentally wrong about them electing MPs to the federal parliament. The problem comes with what their worldview is and how dramatically different it is from the other MPs in Ottawa.
The Bloc is a separatist party, pretending it is something else is trying to ignore the fundamental reasons the Bloc exists. The Bloc exists because a large proportion of the people in Quebec do not consider themselves Canadians and no one ever asked them to be part of Canada. The Bloc represents the concept of Quebec as a nation and the Quebecois as a distinct nationality like a Swede, Korean or Kurd.
The problem comes in the parliament when the majority of the MPs assume everyone is there for Canada and the best interests of Canada. The Bloc has the best interests of Canada at heart about as much as it has the best interests of the US or Germany at heart. The idea of Canada is something they see as a foreign nation and really none of their business. To have close to 1/6 of the MPs in the parliament view the 233 MPs from outside of Quebec as foreigners is a problem.
For the vast majority of Canadians outside of Quebec, the worldview of the Bloc is a bordering on treasonous. Most people can not overcome the idea that Gilles Duceppe is not a Canadian and never will be a Canadian. Somehow they assume that he is simply look for some extra goodies for his province and will eventually embrace the idea of Canada.
Let me put this in clear terms, Gilles Duceppe considers himself as much of a Canadian as Barak Obama or Goerge Bush do. There is nothing that can be done that will change this. No amount of special privileges or deals will ever make the members of the Bloc decide they are Canadians.
Imagine if instead of 49 Bloc MPs, we had 49 American MPs instead. These MPs would be doing what they could to improve things for the US and not for Canada, which is only reasonable given their loyalties. The sooner people see the Bloc MPs as representing a nationality other than Canadian, the sooner they understand the inherent problem of trying to govern with them in Ottawa. Canadians have to come to terms with the reality that there are about 3 000 000 people in this country that do not consider themselves Canadians - they identify as Quebecois.
Governing with the explicit support of the Bloc is political suicide in Canada. The general public in Canada have a love for all of Canada and do not accept the idea of Quebec as a nation or having a special status in the country. Anyone giving them a defacto veto over governance is playing with political fire. Yes, the Conservatives considered a deal with them in the past, but it was a fundamentally dumb idea and thankfully they were spared the doom it would have brought to the party.
Only the Conservatives have enough seats in Ottawa that they can govern without the explicit agreement of the Bloc. They have had the Bloc vote in favour of the government from time to time, but there are times where the interests of Canadians and Quebecois do overlap.
Nothing that Stephen Harper has done in Ottawa has inflamed separatism, it was always there. Harper has not made the 3 000 000 people in Quebec want to be independent, that is where they have been at for forty years now.
There is a governance problem in Canada when you need 155 MPs to have the confidence of parliament and have to find that from only 259 MPs. The Bloc effect means either the Conservatives or Liberals have to gain the support of 60% of the MPs in Ottawa that are Canadians.
At the moment of the Conservatives have a healthy majority of the Canadian MPs in Ottawa, 143 out of 259. If there were no Bloc, Stephen Harper would have a majority.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
What does Ignatieff mean for Canadian Politics?
The Liberals have now crowned Ignatieff as their leader, what will this mean for Canada?
There is a good interview by Terry Glavin with him from 2006. There is also this Anne Kingston piece from Maclean's in 2006.
The NDP and Liberals will be completely out of sync with each other because of foreign policy. An Ignatieff lead Liberal party will be supportive of using Canadian troops like they have been in Afghanistan. He has signed the Euston Manifesto - a strong interventionist statement for human rights. As much as people may hate to hear this, something that is supportive of the sort of foriegn policy practiced by Clinton and then furthered by Bush. He believes the global left should be supportive of the use of force to change things, that the era of Peacekeeping is gone.
Ignatieff is also a supporter of more global free trade and see it as force for reducing global poverty. He sees the biggest improvement in human rights coming from 500 000 000 Chinese being lifted out of absolute poverty in the last 15 years.
He is clearly in favour of free markets but believes in the role of the state to provide for the people. Economically I do not see much common ground between him and the federal NDP on this issue.
The idea of a coalition is dead with Ignatieff as leader and this is a good thing for the Liberals and governance in Canada. It may mean the end of Jack Layton as leader of the NDP.
Can he manage a political party? That to me is the $64 000 question. To come so late in life to politics and then seek the top job in a political party in turmoil and decline takes a lot of hubris. Jean Chretien succeeded because he is a skilled player of the game of politics. Paul Martin was born into the game but could not succeed. I would say the odds are against Ignatieff succeeding.
He has a party that needs to be rebuild from the ground up and he has become leader without any input from the members. He needs to build a coalition of supporters together that will reflect his vision for Canada. He also has to figure out how the party will raise the money it needs to seriously run an election.
My final thought, politics is a blood sport - can his ego handle what is coming?
There is a good interview by Terry Glavin with him from 2006. There is also this Anne Kingston piece from Maclean's in 2006.
The NDP and Liberals will be completely out of sync with each other because of foreign policy. An Ignatieff lead Liberal party will be supportive of using Canadian troops like they have been in Afghanistan. He has signed the Euston Manifesto - a strong interventionist statement for human rights. As much as people may hate to hear this, something that is supportive of the sort of foriegn policy practiced by Clinton and then furthered by Bush. He believes the global left should be supportive of the use of force to change things, that the era of Peacekeeping is gone.
Ignatieff is also a supporter of more global free trade and see it as force for reducing global poverty. He sees the biggest improvement in human rights coming from 500 000 000 Chinese being lifted out of absolute poverty in the last 15 years.
He is clearly in favour of free markets but believes in the role of the state to provide for the people. Economically I do not see much common ground between him and the federal NDP on this issue.
The idea of a coalition is dead with Ignatieff as leader and this is a good thing for the Liberals and governance in Canada. It may mean the end of Jack Layton as leader of the NDP.
Can he manage a political party? That to me is the $64 000 question. To come so late in life to politics and then seek the top job in a political party in turmoil and decline takes a lot of hubris. Jean Chretien succeeded because he is a skilled player of the game of politics. Paul Martin was born into the game but could not succeed. I would say the odds are against Ignatieff succeeding.
He has a party that needs to be rebuild from the ground up and he has become leader without any input from the members. He needs to build a coalition of supporters together that will reflect his vision for Canada. He also has to figure out how the party will raise the money it needs to seriously run an election.
My final thought, politics is a blood sport - can his ego handle what is coming?
Monday, December 8, 2008
Suspending Parliament
There are still people out there that are upset that the GG agreed to suspend parliament. All I can say is that they are living in a dream world where fantasies are granted.
The tension in Ottawa was becoming unreasonable. The opposition was not interested in being cooperative with the government and were in fact looking at trying to take over the government. The problem with this was, and still is, that the proposed coalition is unstable.
If we were to have Dion have become Prime Minister this week, I can not see how he would have been able to name a cabinet, develop a program of government and managed to avoid defeat in the house given the current abilities of the Liberals. A coalition government now would have quickly been in crisis and lead us to either a constitutional crisis of governance or a new election.
With parliament suspended till late January, the Liberals can choose a new leader - sorry crown Ignatief, they can develop a real program of government, or they can see how far Harper will compromise. Other than taking away the hated public subsidy of the parties, the core economic direction of the Conservatives is largely acceptable for the Liberals.
If Ignatief is smart, he will ensure that parliament does not fall and that Harper has to govern through tough times. The Liberals need to understand that as a party they need to build a much larger supporter base on the ground, the party needs to raise a lot more money for their members, and they need to overhaul how the party functions. I have no idea if Ignatief has the skills or the team to make this happen.
The reality is that only the Conservatives have the MPs and skills at this time to govern. The Liberals are not ready or prepared to be a government.
The federal NDP is much weaker than its counter parts in the western provinces and is light on the ground for people that are ready to govern. The brightest and best in the NDP in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba all tend to run to MLAs and not MPs. And when bigger name New Democrats leave the provincial scene for the federal one, too many of them are choosing to become Liberals.
The suspension of parliament will let everyone calm down and will allow us to return to a stable minority government.
The tension in Ottawa was becoming unreasonable. The opposition was not interested in being cooperative with the government and were in fact looking at trying to take over the government. The problem with this was, and still is, that the proposed coalition is unstable.
If we were to have Dion have become Prime Minister this week, I can not see how he would have been able to name a cabinet, develop a program of government and managed to avoid defeat in the house given the current abilities of the Liberals. A coalition government now would have quickly been in crisis and lead us to either a constitutional crisis of governance or a new election.
With parliament suspended till late January, the Liberals can choose a new leader - sorry crown Ignatief, they can develop a real program of government, or they can see how far Harper will compromise. Other than taking away the hated public subsidy of the parties, the core economic direction of the Conservatives is largely acceptable for the Liberals.
If Ignatief is smart, he will ensure that parliament does not fall and that Harper has to govern through tough times. The Liberals need to understand that as a party they need to build a much larger supporter base on the ground, the party needs to raise a lot more money for their members, and they need to overhaul how the party functions. I have no idea if Ignatief has the skills or the team to make this happen.
The reality is that only the Conservatives have the MPs and skills at this time to govern. The Liberals are not ready or prepared to be a government.
The federal NDP is much weaker than its counter parts in the western provinces and is light on the ground for people that are ready to govern. The brightest and best in the NDP in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba all tend to run to MLAs and not MPs. And when bigger name New Democrats leave the provincial scene for the federal one, too many of them are choosing to become Liberals.
The suspension of parliament will let everyone calm down and will allow us to return to a stable minority government.
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