Saturday, February 21, 2009

Looking at the 85 ridings

I can not claim to have done the work to get this data, though Elections BC has the data for anyone that would like to use it. I put together the spreadsheet from the UBC ESM voter transition matrix, the beta test version that is not yet formally publicly available. Werner Antweiller of the UBC ESM gave me access to help find any errors in it.

He will be taking it live and available to the public in the near future, the new version will also have an important change from past versions, you will be able to work with non-voters as part of the mix as well.

Sacha Peter has pointed out that the transition of polls is not 100% accurate because some polls have new boundaries and have been split between ridings. The only riding where this might have made a difference is in Maple Ridge Mission which I have as the NDP winning and he has the Liberals barely winning.

I have the Liberals at 48 (up two) and the NDP at 37 (up four)

In 2005 the Liberals won 18 of their seats by less than 10% and the NDP 15. With the transposed boundaries this changes to Liberals 16 and the NDP 19 - the NDP is defending more territory than the Liberals.

The 'safe' seats for each party in 2005 was as follows, 28 Liberal and 18 NDP. With the 2009 boundaries this changes to Liberals 32 and NDP 18. The Liberals are much closer to the target number of 43 than the NDP is.

So the new boundaries on the surface give the NDP more seats that they would have won in 2005, but at the same time gives the Liberals a larger safe core of seats.

Constituency Political Parties
LIB NDP GRP OTR
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant 20.40% 65.00% 10.30% 4.30%
Surrey-Green Timbers 29.60% 63.60% 4.00% 2.70%
Kootenay West 26.50% 62.40% 7.60% 3.50%
Surrey-Newton 33.10% 59.80% 5.30% 1.80%
Nelson-Creston 26.70% 58.90% 12.30% 2.00%
Victoria-Beacon Hill 30.00% 57.30% 11.30% 1.50%
Alberni-Pacific Rim 32.00% 56.90% 7.20% 3.80%
Surrey-Whalley 30.40% 56.50% 7.00% 6.00%
Victoria-Swan Lake 30.20% 56.10% 11.50% 2.20%
Vancouver-Hastings 32.10% 54.80% 9.00% 4.20%
North Coast 39.60% 52.30% 6.20% 1.90%
Columbia River-Revelstoke 39.80% 51.80% 8.40% 0.00%
Vancouver-Kingsway 40.30% 51.50% 6.30% 1.90%
New Westminster 37.40% 51.30% 9.40% 1.90%
Equimalt-Royal Roads 37.00% 51.20% 10.20% 1.60%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan 37.10% 50.80% 9.80% 2.30%
Skeena 44.10% 49.50% 4.60% 1.80%
Vancouver-Kensington 42.90% 49.30% 6.00% 1.80%
Port Coquitlam 43.40% 48.40% 6.90% 1.30%
Burnaby-Edmonds 40.50% 48.10% 9.70% 1.70%
Juan de Fuca 36.30% 47.60% 10.60% 5.40%
Surrey-Fleetwood 44.60% 47.60% 4.60% 3.30%
Delta North 42.90% 47.50% 7.70% 1.90%
Cariboo-Chilcotin 44.20% 47.30% 5.30% 3.20%
Cowichan Valley 42.50% 47.30% 7.50% 2.80%
Fraser-Nicola 42.50% 47.20% 8.20% 2.10%
Cariboo North 45.80% 47.10% 5.30% 1.80%
Coquitlam-Maillardville 44.50% 47.00% 6.50% 2.10%
Vancouver-Fairview 43.00% 46.80% 9.00% 1.20%
Vancouver-West End 37.40% 46.30% 13.80% 2.60%
Burnaby North 45.00% 45.50% 7.80% 1.70%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 43.60% 45.40% 7.50% 3.50%
Nanaimo 42.50% 45.40% 9.90% 2.20%
Kamloops-North Thompson 43.20% 45.30% 7.10% 4.40%
Saanich South 45.50% 45.30% 7.20% 2.10%
North Island 42.80% 45.20% 7.40% 4.60%
Maple Ridge-Mission 44.10% 44.50% 8.80% 2.50%
Burnaby-Lougheed 46.90% 44.10% 7.90% 1.00%
Kootenay East 47.90% 43.80% 8.30%

Powell River-Sunshine Coast 30.20% 43.50% 25.70% 0.60%
Stikine 46.60% 43.50% 5.50% 4.40%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head 46.60% 43.30% 8.50% 1.60%
Comox Valley 45.70% 43.10% 9.20% 2.00%
Vancouver-Fraserview 47.70% 42.70% 6.60% 3.00%
Port Moody-Coquitlam 48.80% 42.00% 6.80% 2.40%
Surrey-Tynehead 48.70% 41.60% 5.40% 4.20%
Boundary-Similkameen 45.70% 40.80% 9.50% 4.00%
Burnaby-Deer Lake 46.50% 40.70% 7.80% 5.00%
Surrey-Panorama 50.70% 40.30% 7.80% 1.20%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale 45.40% 39.10% 12.40% 3.10%
Parksville-Qualicum 51.90% 38.40% 8.10% 1.50%
Vancouver-Point Grey 46.30% 37.60% 14.90% 1.20%
Vancouver-False Creek 48.70% 37.50% 11.40% 2.30%
Saanich North and the Islands 43.70% 37.50% 15.30% 3.40%
Chilliwack-Hope 52.10% 37.40% 8.50% 2.00%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain 54.50% 37.40% 6.10% 2.10%
Penticton 49.70% 37.10% 10.40% 2.80%
Kamloops-South Thompson 52.40% 36.80% 7.20% 3.70%
Prince George-Mackenzie 49.30% 36.60% 7.60% 6.60%
Nechako Lakes 50.20% 36.20% 8.00% 5.50%
Shuswap 46.70% 35.40% 5.90% 12.10%
Prince George-Valemount 45.70% 35.30% 7.80% 11.20%
Abbotsford-Mission 53.80% 34.70% 9.20% 2.30%
Peace River South 56.30% 34.00% 9.70%

Langley 52.20% 33.60% 12.30% 1.90%
Chilliwack 54.80% 33.60% 8.40% 3.20%
Vernon-Monashee 43.40% 33.40% 7.10% 16.10%
Richmond East 57.30% 33.20% 7.50% 2.00%
Vancouver-Langara 56.50% 33.00% 8.00% 2.40%
Richmond Centre 58.60% 32.50% 7.70% 1.20%
Abbotsford West 58.30% 31.30% 6.60% 3.80%
Kelowna-Mission 54.70% 31.30% 12.50% 1.50%
Richmond-Steveston 59.30% 31.20% 8.30% 1.20%
Westside-Kelowna 52.30% 30.60% 11.70% 5.40%
Abbotsford South 58.90% 30.20% 7.70% 3.20%
Kelowna-Lake Country 51.70% 30.00% 9.60% 8.70%
Surrey-Cloverdale 60.40% 30.00% 8.40% 1.20%
North Vancouver-Seymour 57.30% 29.40% 11.80% 1.50%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove 59.10% 29.10% 9.70% 2.10%
Peace River North 60.20% 26.90% 7.10% 5.80%
Surrey-White Rock 58.00% 26.40% 10.60% 5.10%
Delta South 37.50% 24.00% 4.70% 33.90%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 48.20% 22.70% 27.10% 2.00%
Vancouver-Quilchena 67.20% 21.00% 10.40% 1.40%
West Vancouver-Capilano 67.30% 17.90% 13.30% 1.60%
Post a Comment