Monday, January 10, 2011

BC Leadership Race

Without having access to the membership numbers by riding or how much they are growing and who is getting the sign ups, it is very hard to make concrete predictions on where the numbers are at.   Using current and former MLAs as a measure of who much support each candidate has, there is no one that is going to win on the first counting of the ballot.  

If no one wins on the first count, it becomes very important who comes fourth and what their supporters are likely to do.

By every measure I can find, I think George Abbott is clearly in the lead.   Moira Stillwell and Ed Mayne are both going to garner a couple of percentage points at most.   This means the race will be decided on the order that de Jong, Clark and Falcon finish.   Things look bad for Clark and Falcon and very rosy for George Abbott.   Only Mike de Jong has a longshot chance of a win but that is based on how the votes fall.

The vote preferences will be locked in and how anyone places after the first count will not influence the second and third preferences.  

Given some of the comments coming out of the George Abbott camp, I can not see a lot of Christy Clark supporters going towards him.   I also can not see her supporters going to Kevin Falcon.  If Christy Clark comes fourth, I think the bulk of her support will flow to Mike de Jong.

In the scenario in which Christy Clark comes fourth, I see her pushing enough support to Mike de Jong to come second on the second count.   This means the third count is the redistribution of Kevin Falcon votes, in this scenario I see George Abbott gaining enough votes to win.

Let us say Kevin Falcon comes fourth, I can not see his support going to Christy Clark, I see it going to George Abbott with a small amount potentially going to Mike de Jong.

It is only with Kevin Falcon coming fourth that I see the potential for George Abbott to get enough votes to win on the second count.   If it does go to another count, Mike de Jong wins if he is second after the second ballot and George Abbott wins if Christy Clark comes second.

With Mike de Jong coming in fourth, which is where most people seem to be placing him, I really can not judge where his support will go.   I think it will split three ways.

With his votes not pushing either of the others ahead of Abbott, I see Abbott wining on the third count.   If it is the Falcon supporters choosing their next preference, then I see them going to Abbott.  It if is Clark, I see a lot of ballots that have no preferences left to transfer and George Abbott does not grow but the vote needed to win falls below his total.

So how does this change?   The this is only possible in a few ways.   First, one of the other campaigns has to be seen as the #1 candidate in the race.   Second George Abbott has to screw up really bad.  Third the other campaigns have to enough members to place them ahead of George Abbott.  At this moment I do not see any of these happening.

As of this point I see George Abbott the odds on favorite to win with Mike de Jong having a 1-20 chance of winning and the other two a 1-100 chance.
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