Wednesday, February 11, 2009

UBC Election Stockmarket - BC Provincial Election

I highly recommend the UBC Election Stockmarket for the up coming provincial election. The market opens on March 16th. My plan is to be a trader. I had wanted to take part in the federal one, but the things happening in my life did not allow me to take part.

If enough people are taking part in the ESM, it becomes a very good predictor of how the election is going. It can track mood changes must faster than polls manage to. It also does a good job of estimating the seats parties will win.

The site also has a nice election forecasting tool in the voter migration matrix, but the tool does not reflect the work done by Werner Antweiller. Really there should be tracking of the people that did not vote as another 'party' and allow for transition to and from non voters as an option. I think it would better reflect the reality of what happens.
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