Tuesday, March 3, 2009

May 12th Election - I am bored already

I have yet to hear any realistic scenario that would have any other result other than the Liberals winning the next election. I have looked for input from people as to what the 'killer issue' could be, what could be the defining ballot box question and I have heard nothing new, nothing different than 2005.

The anger from 2005 is no longer with us which is what pushed the NDP to their strong finish last time.

I get an sense of a campaign by rote from both sides. No one is talking about anything exciting. The NDP is not resonating strongly with any issues. The public sector union leadership still hates Campbell. The left still thinks that Campbell is some sort of far right guy.

None of this shows me that there will be any dramatic shift in voters in this election. The only significant issue I can see that has traction is the economy and this is a loser for the NDP. I see people that sat on their hands in 2005 voting for the Liberals this time.

What interests me the most is the campaign for the leadership of the NDP after Carole James resigns after the election. The serious people have to have their feelers out, a sense of who their supporters are and where they will find the money.

The NDP needs someone to come in that looks like a pragmatic centrist and build an NDP that is not overly dominated by public sector labour leaders.

So who could be in the running:

  • John Horgan - I am impressed with him, but with some health issues, will he run?
  • Gregor Robertson - It is too soon for him to leave as mayor and he was not nearly as impressive as MLA as expected
  • Rob Flemming - This is one round too early for him. He also does not seem to have the comfort in public to be leader
  • Harry Lali - I think he will make a run for it, he has the experience and the public presence to be leader.
  • Mike Farnworth - I am not sure he wants the limelight.
  • Harry Bains - He has been strong in his critic role and could be a very interesting candidate if he runs.
  • Jagrup Brar - I do not know enough about him to know if he would want to make a run for it.
  • Adrian Dix - Few people know the backrooms of politics as well as he does, but is he your man for the forefront?
  • Bruce Ralston - Not sure he has the passion or presence to run.
  • Nathan Cullen - He has done well as an MP though a bit young this time around. If he speaks French, I think he would be a good choice to replace Layton.
  • Peter Julian - another MP, I do not know enough about him to have an opinion
  • Bill Siksay - He stepped and has done well in Svend Robinson's seat.
  • Libby Davies - She has been an MP since 1997, I am not sure she has the desire to be BC NDP leader.
I am not coming up with any other names at the moment. I was looking around local government and among labour leaders, but did not see any names of anyone that struck me as likely to run.


Anonymous said...

Too soon to count the chickens. It could erupt anytime, and also complacency can make an election lost.

A bad economy can cut both ways if it gets too deep.

NDP has till the end of the month to claw back some grounds.

Rest assured, the race will get tighter.


Anonymous said...

I think their safest bet at this point is either Mike Farnsworth or Gregor Robertson. Yet with Gregor having just become Mayor I don't see him making a push for at least one or two more elections.
My hope is that Mike doesn't run because I believe he would be a much more effective leader then Carole James.
Can anyone say Carole James -Leader For Life?