With Dawn Black resigning this seat to run in the provincial election, there will need to be a by-election in this seat.
I have no idea when the by-election will be called, but it could be some time as the Prime Minister may wait for several to be run at the same time. With the resignation Stephen Harper is one seat closer to a majority, though still far enough way to not really matter. If he was less than five short, he could pass bills without opposition if he has a good whip and is completely up on who is in the house.
The by-election will be a very interesting one to watch because this really is a three way race. Yes, the Liberals did very badly last time, but then the NDP did very badly in 2000.
With the new leader the Liberals are going to be going all out to win this seat. A second place finish would be good for them, but to cement Ignatieff as PM in waiting, he needs a win here.
The NDP I suspect think they will win it without too much trouble, but without a well known naming running for them, they are going to have to fight hard to hold it. A loss here may mark the end of the Layton era in the NDP.
For the Conservatives this is an important riding to win to bring them closer to a majority and show that the popular opinion is with the government. They have to place at least second.
The wildcard are the Greens - who will they run and how hard will they run? I can see a the Greens, NDP and Liberals battling each like crazy if someone like Elizabeth May runs.
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It seems increasingly unlikely that May will run here, and the local blogs are silent on the subject of who carry the Green banner. Pity.
The Liberals are largely ineffective here, except in splitting the vote and allowing the Tories to win.
The NDP will wait until after the provincial election before turning their thoughts here.
SO - If Harper really wanted he could win this riding, he'd call a surprise by-election in the middle of the provincial vote, and encourage Paul Forseth to run again.
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