Sunday, March 22, 2009

Waiting on polling numbers

New numbers are supposed to be out tomorrow. They will set the stage for the provincial election campaign. Unless the NDP is in the 40s in the poll, there is effectively no hope left for the NDP to hold the seats they have at the moment. Any number below 40% will mean the loss of a number seats. A gap of 10% or more between the Liberals and the NDP signals a Liberal landslide.

Certainly all the numbers up until now have not been good for the NDP, yes there was a couple of polls late last summer that showed a much narrower gap, but since then it has not been good.

If I am feeling better tomorrow, the flu yet again, I will post a comprehensive analysis of the seats in the province


Anonymous said...

I'm going to say that the Liberals seem more and more comfortable - my belief is that the NDP campaign is going to have a hard time picking itself up.

It will be interesting to see on election night if the Greens will win a seat (not that they have many seats they have any hope in). It will also be interesting to see if Vicki Huntington can get herself elected against Wally Oppal.

I'm curious as to whether or not there will be any polls on STV

Anonymous said...

The regional breakdowns will be much more important then province wide results. This because this election is quickly turning into a whole bunch local issue campaigns. Burnaby is the jail, South of Fraser is crime and Gateway, North and Interior is gas tax and forestry.

This is really 3 or 4 smaller wars, not the one big one.

Anonymous said...

Ipsos -reid polls have been held back,they show the liberals are in deep doo-doo---The Angus reid polls had the NDP leading by 5 points,and that was at the end of november/ november 25th to be exact.
The BC Liberal internal polls has all burnaby cadidates losing,hayer and Falcon to lose,wally is done in Delta,present seat count if the election was tomorrow is NDP 50 seats ---1 independent ---34 Liberal seats--but you keep spinning,you might just start believing your own bullshit.
Remember in 2005--11 seats and 2000 votes and the NDP would be goverment,Campbell has become hated,everyone of those riding will be going NDP--Can`t wait to laugh my face off at you on may12th/2009--In case you haven`t noticed Schulman, people hate Campbell,he is a liar and a law breaker,his word is worth shit on a stick,he is a bold faced liar--He is finished,ya got it finished,how much would you like to bet?

Anonymous said...

Well we know the numbers now:

L - 46% +2%
N - 35% n/c
G - 15% -1%

Historically, the 3rd party (Liberal or Green) has alway taken around 3 NDP votes for every 2 Liberal (or Socred votes).

With a 10% Green vote, one arives at 48% for the Libs and 38% for the NDP.

Uncanny, how that comes close to your original prediction Bernard:

Provincewide result is
Liberals - 48.4% and 65 seats
NDP - 37.9% and 20 seats
Greens - 10.2% and 0 seats

Anonymous said...

Ipsos reid has zero credibility,ever since they partnered up with Canwest Global in 2005 their polls have been bogus,I know for fact that the NDP have gained strength on the island yet Ipsos reid has the Liberals leading big on the island,lol--I guess if this poll is correct the NDP won`t win ant ridings, 85 liberal seats to 0 NDP seats.
I guess we will have to wait for the Angus Reid poll to get accuracy,after all,Angus reid was the most accurate of the pollsters in the last federal election.According to the BC Liberal internal polls that I have seen the Liberals are polling between 36% to 38% in Metro Vancouver--The 20% on the island--mid 30% in the interior--only in the northeast part of the province are the liberals leading.

Ipsos reid has been unbelievable ever since.

The press release goes on to say that that with this partnership Canwest News Media has "Special access to ipsos reid`s pollsters"