Thursday, May 7, 2009

New Mustel poll out

The headline numbers are Liberals 47, NDP 38%, Greens 12%, Conservatives 3%. Details here.

This is a large shift from their last poll with the Liberals dropping from 52% to 47% and the NDP rising from 35% to 38%. This Mustel poll looks more like a lot of the other ones out there.

They have bigger sample this time - 852 respondents. There more details I would love to see but they are not there. They do not have any detailed regional breakdowns but mention a few pieces. Specifically the Conservatives are at 7% in the southern interior which is lower than I thought they would be, I think it is safe to say the Joe Cardoso is not in danger of being an MLA.

According to Sacha Peter the poll had 84% of the respondents intending to vote in the election. That is almost one in four people that answered they would be voting that lied to the pollster or Mustel had a very bad random sample.

The NDP is strongest on the island north of the Malahat and this could indicate the NDP might gain one seat from the Liberals by winning Comox Valley.

The Liberals are strong of the Metro Vancouver suburbs and the southern Interior. The strength in the 'burbs is very bad news for the NDP because they could lose a lot of seats in that area.

So what is the impact of this poll on my numbers? Minimal.

  • Liberals - 46.6% (+0.5)
  • NDP - 37.2% (+0.7)
  • Greens - 12.4% (-0.5)
  • Others - 3.8% (-0.7)
Impact seats I will have to work out, but I do not see much change from the totals in my riding by riding projection, though a couple of ridings may shift but with a net no change.

They also asked about BC STV and found 43% for First Past the Post and 33% for BC STV. These numbers are depressing to me as we have the chance to improve our society by using the best electoral system available. I can not sugar coat these numbers and have to accept that we are seeing the end of electoral reform in Canada for several generations.

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