Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Riding by Riding Prediction

The end result of this is
  • Liberals 49
  • NDP 21
  • Uncertain 15
If the uncertain ones split evenly, this leaves us at:
  • Liberals 57
  • NDP 28
When looking at the polling numbers and not individual ridings, I end up with more Liberal seats. When factoring details of the ridings, the rising Liberal tide does not sink as many New Democrats.

Safe Liberal Seats
  1. Abbotsford South
  2. Abbotsford West
  3. Abbotsford-Mission
  4. Burnaby-Deer Lake
  5. Chilliwack
  6. Chilliwack-Hope
  7. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
  8. Fort Langley-Aldergrove
  9. Kamloops-South Thompson
  10. Kelowna-Lake Country
  11. Kelowna-Mission
  12. Langley
  13. Nechako Lakes
  14. North Vancouver-Lonsdale
  15. North Vancouver-Seymour
  16. Oak Bay-Gordon Head
  17. Parksville-Qualicum
  18. Peace River North
  19. Peace River South
  20. Prince George-Mackenzie
  21. Prince George-Valemount
  22. Richmond Centre
  23. Richmond East
  24. Richmond-Steveston
  25. Saanich North and the Islands
  26. Shuswap
  27. Surrey-Cloverdale
  28. Surrey-Panorama
  29. Surrey-Tynehead
  30. Surrey-White Rock
  31. Vancouver-False Creek
  32. Vancouver-Langara
  33. Vancouver-Point Grey
  34. Vancouver-Quilchena
  35. Vernon-Monashee
  36. West Vancouver-Capilano
  37. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
  38. Westside-Kelowna

Probable Liberal Seats
  1. Boundary-Similkameen
  2. Burnaby North
  3. Burnaby-Lougheed
  4. Comox Valley
  5. Delta South
  6. Kamloops-North Thompson
  7. Kootenay East
  8. Penticton
  9. Port Moody-Coquitlam
  10. Saanich South
  11. Vancouver-Fraserview

Safe NDP Seats
  1. Alberni-Pacific Rim
  2. Columbia River-Revelstoke
  3. Juan de Fuca
  4. Kootenay West
  5. Nanaimo-North Cowichan
  6. Nelson-Creston
  7. New Westminster
  8. Powell River-Sunshine Coast
  9. Surrey-Green Timbers
  10. Surrey-Newton
  11. Surrey-Whalley
  12. Vancouver-Hastings
  13. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
  14. Victoria-Beacon Hill
  15. Victoria-Swan Lake

Probable NDP Seats
  1. Cowichan Valley
  2. Esquimalt-Royal Roads
  3. Fraser-Nicola
  4. North Coast
  5. Vancouver-Kingsway
  6. Vancouver-West End

Battleground Ridings
  1. Burnaby-Edmonds
  2. Cariboo North
  3. Cariboo-Chilcotin
  4. Coquitlam-Maillardville
  5. Delta North
  6. Maple Ridge-Mission
  7. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
  8. Nanaimo
  9. North Island
  10. Port Coquitlam
  11. Skeena
  12. Stikine
  13. Surrey-Fleetwood
  14. Vancouver-Fairview
  15. Vancouver-Kensington
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