Thursday, July 23, 2009

Ekos federal polling

Ekos has been regular federal political polling all summer with a new poll each week, here is the latest poll.

What I like about the Ekos polls is that they are of a reasonable size to allow us to drill down and see some regional and demographic detail. They have 2633 decided voters in their latest poll, this allows us to see what is happening in different parts of the country.

I also like that they have been doing weekly polls for 2 months. This means we can see trends from a consistent source.

So what am I finding out of the polling that is interesting?

1) The Liberals and Conservatives are effectively in a tie nationwide in popularity, but they are only close to each in popularity in Ontario, everywhere else there is more than a 10 point gap between the two parties

2) The Liberals are first or second in every part of Canada.

3) The NDP remains thinly spread through out Canada and is running fourth in three of the six polling regions.

4) There is some surprising levels of strength of the Greens. Specifically the Greens have had a very consistent 1/4 of the support of people under age 25 and in the latest poll they are number one for under 25 support. In BC the Greens are at 19.1% outside of the lower mainland, almost tied with the Liberals and only a bit behind the NDP. This is a high enough level for them to be realistic contenders in ridings in BC outside of the the lower mainland.

5) The poll asked about second choices, this revealed some interesting data. 40% of Conservative supporters have no second choice, much, much higher than anyone else. Greens are second in no second choice at 1/4 of their supporters.

Among the undecided voters, the Greens and Conservatives have 10% each and the Liberals only 7.1% and NDP 6.3%

The biggest second choice block is New Democrats willing to consider the Liberals - 43.2% of the NDP supporters have Liberals as second choice. Meanwhile among Liberals the NDP is the second choice of 32.2% and the Conservatives 26.9%.

Overall the second choice poll shows strength for both the C0nservatives and the Liberals, but of different types. It also shows weakness for the NDP.

What does it all mean?
The Liberals are Conservatives remain too close to each other to allow either one to win an election at this time. It is also relevant that there are very few regions where the two major parties are clearly in competition with each other. Both parties would be focusing at Ontario at the moment based on this sort of polling.

The numbers should be worrying for the NDP, the party is getting thinner support over more of the country, this leads to winning a lot fewer seats.
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