The impact of the Conservatives on the Liberals

The BC Conservatives are talking about running a few more candidates this time around than they have done in a few elections. As of the weekend before the election they have 14 candidates lined up. The last election in which they ran more candidates than this was in 1979. Leader Wilf Hanni is talking about running 20 candidates in total.

So, what will the impact be on the Liberals from this?

Realistically the Conservative candidates will average about 5% of the vote in the ridings where they are running. Wilf Hanni ran for the party in the Vancouver Fairview by-election last October and took just over 4% of the vote. In 2005 the party averaged about 6% for their candidates, but most of that vote came from two candidates in the North Okanagan that did well for the party and pushed the Greens into fourth place.

If we look at the Conservatives and assume that the candidates will get 7% each in the ridings that they run in and all of that vote comes from the BC Liberals and there are no other changes, what is the impact? Here is how that plays out in the 14 seats that have announced Conservative candidates:

• Boundary Similkameen - NDP win
• Chilliwack - Liberal hold
• Kootenay East - NDP win
• Cowichan Valley - NDP hold
• Delta North - NDP hold
• Kamloops South Thompson - Liberal hold
• Kelowna Lake Country - Liberal hold
• Kelowna Mission - Liberal hold
• Nelson Creston - NDP hold
• North Vancouver Lonsdale - toss up
• Shuswap - Liberal hold
• Vernon Monashee - Liberal hold
• Westside Kelowna - Liberal hold
• West Vancouver Capilano - Liberal hold

Result is two more NDP wins.

Now I think this is a very simplistic analysis and does not reflect the nuances of what is happening on the ground. I believe that the Conservatives will bring more people to the polls in ridings where they run strong campaigns and not be siphoning off votes from the Liberals as dramatically as my simplistic thought experiment had above.

In 1996 BC Reform did the best in the traditional hardcore right wing areas of BC. Places where the NDP had no hope of winning even with a split right wing vote. Though their impact was high enough to likely have cost the Liberals three to six seats in that election.

Many of the Reform strong holds in 1996 were the core of the areas where Unity BC did well, specifically the North Okanagan.

My estimate is that the Conservatives will cause the Liberals to lose Boundary Similkameen and put Kootenay East at threat. That is it. I do not believe that the NDP is anywhere close to threatening a win in this election, so I see the impact of the Conservatives as minimal on the election outcome. Frankly Vicki Huntingdon is a much bigger threat to the Liberals than the whole Wilf Hanni gang.

STV

Every aspect of the campaign for Yes to BC STV points to it coming from average people interested in something fairer and more representative.

Calm before the storm, so some thoughts on Ignatieff

Much has been happening in my life in the last few weeks, enough that I have not been able to be on the computer expressing my thoughts for all you people out there in the ether.

This weekend is the calm before the provincial election storm, so I thought I would take a quick look over to Ottawaland.

The polling numbers are showing the strongest numbers of the Liberals in a long time, they are beginning to show a trend of being marginally ahead of the Conservatives. Certainly they are not nearly strong enough to consider pushing for an election, but the trend is in the right direction.

The better numbers will help build a stronger support for Ignatieff's leadership and allow him to consolidate his hold over the party, something he has been working to do. I will admit I was very skeptical of Iggy as leader of the Liberals, but he is proving himself to be one of the best political leaders in Canada, certainly one of the best leaders the Liberals have ever seen.

Ignatieff is clearly not looking to rush into any election at the moment and seems to be interested in building a strong party first and foremost. Other than leadership bids, the Liberals have gone for the better of a generation without building the grassroots of the party. You can see the results in donations to political parties and how few individual donors the Liberals have in comparison to the Conservatives.

Ignatieff clearly understands that the political weight in Canada is moving west. Unless the Liberals can break the Conservative hold over the west, that fortress like lock on close to 70 seats, there is reasonable chance that the natural governing party in the country will no longer be the Liberals but the Conservatives. When the next redistribution happens in Canada, more seats will be added to Alberta, BC and suburban Ontario. These are locations friendly to the Conservatives.

Ignatieff was also smart to avoid the coalition with the NDP. The bulk of the votes in Canada are centre to centre right, the centre left is at most 20% of Canadians. There are not enough people on the centre left for the Liberals to gain to replace the votes they lose on the centre right. Outside of Quebec, the Conservatives managed a respectable 44.3% of the vote. The Liberals need to find more support from those people.

When you look at the 233 seats outside of Quebec, the Conservatives won 133 of them. They are the majority party outside of Quebec. Ignatieff is politically smart enough to know that the electoral math in Canada, as long as there is a Bloc, means you have to win a majority in English speaking Canada. The last time the Liberals won a legitimate majority of English speaking Canada was in 1968.

The reception Ignatieff is getting in the west is better than any Liberal leader has received since the late 1960s. If he can rebuild the party in the four western provinces and make an assault on the Conservative fortress, he could build a formula to win the next election.

As the economy gets worse and there are more and more unemployed, there will be more people looking for someone with a believable message of hope for a way forward. The recession will statistically at its worst in 2010, but the public perception will be at its lowest in 2011 and 2012, the exact wrong timing for the government to hold an election.

Ignatieff is a good speaker, he sounds sincere and is not full of platitudes. He is a better speaker than Stephen Harper. Both he and Harper exude confidence that they know what they are ding and are capable of governing. For the Liberals the perfect situation would be for the NDP to keep Jack Layton into the next election, in the face of a good Liberal leader, the NDP could be dramatically harmed at the polls.

His approach to being leader of the opposition has been well done. He is watching over the government as the government in waiting, he is not being shrill and making all those people who voted Conservative feel uncomfortable. He is providing skeptical support for a minority government but not responsible for the dumb ass moves the government will make.

The only thing that stands in Michael Ignatieff and ultimate political success is his age. Statistically he is old enough that sudden death or critical illness are not unreasonable possibilities.