I have updated my projection for an election in Canada - see the box on the right hand side. The movement in the last few weeks is the first indication of a change in public sentiment in months.

I am not worrying about the details too much at the moment as there is no danger of an election anytime soon. I assume support for the Conservatives will fall for the next six weeks. I expect their support to rise again in early March and to be back to where it is now. I can not predict what the issues will be in the public mind in two to three months. The stuff with proroguing parliament ill blow over before the MPs are back in session and droning on.

I do not see proroguing as a big issue because the federal politicians have less issues to deal with than provincial MLAs tend to have a lot more issues to deal with. The major issues in Canada that matter to the public are health, education, the environment, the economy and local government all of these areas are primarily the responsibility of the provinces. Provincial legislatures sit for many fewer days per year and the public does not get outraged.

If you look at what the federal parliament is actually doing, it is almost all political posturing and very little real governance. If the federal government sat less, there will be more focus on the governments that really matter in our lives.