Four pending federal by-elections

I assume these will be called very soon as the Winipeg North one has to come soon

Here are the resignations

• Judy Wasylycia-Leis NDP Winnipeg North
• Maurizio Bevilacqua Liberal Vaughan
• Inky Mark Conservative Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette
• Jay Hill Conservative Prince George - Peace River

 Peace River - Prince George:  Forgone conclusion that this will be a Conservative win
Winnipeg North: I can not see any danger of the NDP losing
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette:  Conservative calk walk

There is only one race, Vaughn.  It is not out of the realm of possible for the Conservatives to win this.  Maurizio Bevilacqua was on the right side of the Liberals.   The Conservatives have been gaining ground in the last several elections.  Still, this is a mountain to climb.

The one factor that is likely to help the Conservatives is that older voters are more likely to vote in a by-election and rural voters are also more likely to vote.   The local candidates will matter and the amount of money the two main parties have to spend matters.

If the Conservatives were to win, this would leave the house as follows:

• Conservatives - 145
• Liberals - 75
• Bloc - 48
• NDP - 37
• Ind  - 2
• Speaker - 1 ( a Liberal)

This means the Conservatives are nine votes short of a majority, with the two independents this is seven short.  It only takes a few MPs to be absent for the Conservatives to have a majority in the house from time to time.

It is still more likely the Liberals will win Vaughn, leaving no change to the house.